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Predictable Irrationality: Understanding Why We Make the Choices We Do
We like to think of ourselves as rational beings, making logical decisions based on careful consideration. But the reality is far more fascinating, and often perplexing. This post dives deep into the concept of predictable irrationality, exploring how our seemingly illogical choices are, in fact, remarkably consistent and predictable. We'll uncover the psychological biases and cognitive shortcuts that drive our decisions, offering insights into why we behave the way we do – even when it contradicts our own best interests. Prepare to be surprised by just how predictable your irrationality truly is.
What is Predictable Irrationality?
The term "predictable irrationality," coined by renowned behavioral economist Dan Ariely, refers to the systematic ways in which our thinking deviates from strict rationality. It's not about random, inexplicable choices; it's about consistent patterns of irrationality that can be identified and, to some extent, predicted. These patterns aren't flaws in our thinking, but rather inherent aspects of the human cognitive architecture – evolved mechanisms that served us well in simpler times but can lead to suboptimal choices in today's complex world. Understanding these patterns is crucial for making better decisions in our personal lives, businesses, and even policy-making.
The Power of Framing and Anchoring
One key driver of predictable irrationality is the way information is presented – framing. The same information can elicit wildly different responses depending on how it's framed. For example, describing a surgery with a 90% survival rate is far more appealing than describing it with a 10% mortality rate, even though the information is identical. Similarly, anchoring – our tendency to rely heavily on the first piece of information we receive – heavily influences our subsequent judgments. A high initial price for a product can anchor our perception of its value, making us more likely to accept a slightly lower (but still potentially inflated) price as a "good deal."
The Endowment Effect and Loss Aversion
We tend to place a higher value on things we already own, even if we wouldn't pay that much to acquire them. This is the endowment effect. We're also more sensitive to losses than to gains of equivalent magnitude – this is loss aversion. These two biases often work together, making us resistant to change and more likely to stick with the status quo, even if a better alternative exists. This explains why we might hold onto a depreciating asset for too long or why we're hesitant to switch to a superior product or service.
The Influence of Social Norms and Conformity
Our decisions are rarely made in a vacuum; they're heavily influenced by social context. Conformity – our tendency to adapt our behavior to match the norms of a group – can lead us to make choices that contradict our own preferences or beliefs. This is particularly evident in situations where we're uncertain or feel pressure to conform, potentially leading to suboptimal choices. Consider the Asch conformity experiments, which demonstrated the power of group pressure to override individual judgment.
The Role of Emotions and Cognitive Biases
Rational decision-making relies on logic and reason, but emotions play a significant, often unconscious, role. We are prone to various cognitive biases, such as confirmation bias (seeking out information that confirms our existing beliefs), availability heuristic (overestimating the likelihood of events that are easily recalled), and overconfidence bias (overestimating our own abilities). These biases interact with our emotions, leading us to make irrational choices that feel right in the moment, even if they’re ultimately detrimental.
Mitigating the Effects of Predictable Irrationality
While we can't eliminate our irrational tendencies entirely, understanding them is the first step towards mitigating their effects. This involves developing self-awareness, challenging our assumptions, seeking diverse perspectives, and consciously employing decision-making strategies that account for our biases. For example, actively seeking out counterarguments, delaying decisions to allow emotions to subside, and using structured decision-making frameworks can help us make more rational choices.
Conclusion
Predictable irrationality is a fascinating area of study that highlights the complexities of human decision-making. By understanding the psychological mechanisms that drive our seemingly illogical choices, we can gain valuable insights into ourselves and the world around us. While eliminating irrationality completely might be impossible, recognizing and addressing its predictable patterns can significantly improve our decision-making capabilities and lead to better outcomes in all aspects of our lives.
FAQs
1. Is predictable irrationality a sign of weakness? No, it's a normal aspect of human cognition. Our brains use shortcuts to make decisions efficiently, even if those shortcuts sometimes lead to irrational choices.
2. Can predictable irrationality be exploited by marketers? Yes, understanding these biases is crucial for marketing and advertising. Many marketing techniques exploit predictable irrationalities to influence consumer behavior.
3. How can I improve my rational decision-making skills? Practice mindfulness, seek diverse perspectives, delay gratification, and employ structured decision-making frameworks.
4. Are there any specific tools or techniques to combat predictable irrationality? Techniques like cost-benefit analysis, decision matrices, and scenario planning can help in making more rational decisions.
5. Does predictable irrationality apply to all aspects of life? Yes, it applies to personal finance, relationships, career choices, political decisions, and many other areas. Understanding it can provide valuable insights across the board.
| predictable irrationality: Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces that Shape Our Decisions Dan Ariely, 2009-03-06 Why do smart people make irrational decisions every day? The answers will surprise you. Predictably Irrational is an intriguing, witty and utterly original look at why we all make illogical decisions. |
| predictable irrationality: Psychology and Behavioral Economics Kai Ruggeri, 2021-09-22 Psychology and Behavioral Economics offers an expert introduction to how psychology can be applied to a range of public policy areas. It examines the impact of psychological research for public policy making in economic, financial and consumer sectors, in education, healthcare and at workplace, for energy and the environment, and in communications. Your energy bills show you how much you use compared to the average in your area. Your doctor sends you a text message reminder when your appointment is coming up. Your bank gives you three choices for how much to pay off on your credit card each month. Wherever you look, there has been a rapid increase in the amount of interest we place on understanding real human behaviors in everyday decisions, and these behavioral insights are now regularly used to influence everything from how companies recruit employees through to large-scale public policy and government regulation. But what is the actual evidence behind these tactics, and how did psychology become such a major player in economics? Answering these questions and more, this team of authors working across both academia and government present this fully revised and updated reworking of Behavioral Insights for Public Policy. This update covers everything from the history of how policy was historically developed, major research in human behavior and social psychology, and key moments that brought behavioral sciences into the forefront of public policy. Featuring over 100 empirical examples of how behavioral insights are being used to address some of the most critical challenges faced globally, key topics covered include evidence-based policy, a brief history of behavioral and decision sciences, behavioral economics, and policy evaluation, all illustrated throughout with lively case studies and major empirical examples. Including end-of-chapter questions, a glossary, and key concept boxes to aid retention, as well as a new chapter revealing the work of the Canadian Government's behavioral insights unit, this is the perfect textbook for students of psychology, economics, public health, education, and organizational sciences, as well as public policy professionals looking for fresh insight into the underlying theory and practical applications in a range of public policy areas. |
| predictable irrationality: The Irrational Bundle Dan Ariely, 2013-04-04 Dan Ariely's three New York Times bestselling books on his groundbreaking behavioral economics research, Predictably Irrational, The Upside of Irrationality, and The (Honest) Truth About Dishonesty, are now available for the first time in a single volume. |
| predictable irrationality: The Upside of Irrationality: The Unexpected Benefits of Defying Logic at Work and at Home Dan Ariely, 2010-05-27 Behavioral economist and New York Times bestselling author of Predictably Irrational Dan Ariely returns to offer a much-needed take on the irrational decisions that influence our dating lives, our workplace experiences, and our general behaviour, up close and personal. |
| predictable irrationality: Irrationality Justin E. H. Smith, 2020-12-08 What every leader needs to know about dignity and how to create a culture in which everyone thrives. This landmark book from an expert in dignity studies explores the essential but under-recognized role of dignity as part of good leadership. Extending the reach of her award-winning book Dignity: Its Essential Role in Resolving Conflict, Donna Hicks now contributes a specific, practical guide to achieving a culture of dignity. Most people know very little about dignity, the author has found, and when leaders fail to respect the dignity of others, conflict and distrust ensue. She highlights three components of leading with dignity: what one must know in order to honor dignity and avoid violating it; what one must do to lead with dignity; and how one can create a culture of dignity in any organization, whether corporate, religious, governmental, healthcare, or beyond. Brimming with key research findings, real-life case studies, and workable recommendations, this book fills an important gap in our understanding of how best to be together in a conflict-ridden world.-- |
| predictable irrationality: Predictably Rational? Richard B. McKenzie, 2009-10-21 Mainstream economists everywhere exhibit an irrational passion for dispassionate rationality. Behavioral economists, and long-time critic of mainstream economics suggests that people in mainstrean economic models can think like Albert Einstein, store as much memory as IBM’s Big Blue, and exercise the will power of Mahatma Gandhi, suggesting that such a view of real world modern homo sapiens is simply wrongheaded. Indeed, Thaler and other behavioral economists and psychology have documented a variety of ways in which real-world people fall far short of mainstream economists' idealized economic actor, perfectly rational homo economicus. Behavioral economist Daniel Ariely has concluded that real-world people not only exhibit an array of decision-making frailties and biases, they are predictably irrational, a position now shared by so many behavioral economists, psychologists, sociologists, and evolutionary biologists that a defense of the core rationality premise of modedrn economics is demanded. |
| predictable irrationality: How Doctors Think Jerome Groopman, 2010 On average, a physician will interrupt a patient describing her symptoms within eighteen seconds. In that short time, many doctors decide on the likely diagnosis and best treatment. Often, decisions made this way are correct, but at crucial moments they can also be wrong with catastrophic consequences. In this myth-shattering book, Jerome Groopman pinpoints the forces and thought processes behind the decisions doctors make. Groopman explores why doctors err and shows when and how they can with our help avoid snap judgments, embrace uncertainty, communicate effectively, and deploy other skills that can profoundly impact our health. This book is the first to describe in detail the warning signs of erroneous medical thinking and reveal how new technologies may actually hinder accurate diagnoses. How Doctors Think offers direct, intelligent questions patients can ask their doctors to help them get back on track.Groopman draws on a wealth of research, extensive interviews with some of the country's best doctors, and his own experience as a doctor and as a patient. He has learned many of the lessons in this book the hard way, from his own mistakes and from errors his doctors made in treating his debilitating medical problems.How Doctors Think reveals a profound new view of twenty-first-century medical practice, giving doctors and patients the vital information they need to make better judgments together. |
| predictable irrationality: Irrationally Yours Dr. Dan Ariely, 2015-05-19 Three-time New York Times bestselling author Dan Ariely teams up with legendary The New Yorker cartoonist William Haefeli to present an expanded, illustrated collection of his immensely popularWall Street Journal advice column, “Ask Ariely”. Behavioral economist Dan Ariely revolutionized the way we think about ourselves, our minds, and our actions in his books Predictably Irrational, The Upside of Irrationality, and The Honest Truth about Dishonesty. Ariely applies this scientific analysis of the human condition in his “Ask Ariely” Q & A column in the Wall Street Journal, in which he responds to readers who write in with personal conundrums ranging from the serious to the curious: What can you do to stay calm when you’re playing the volatile stock market? What’s the best way to get someone to stop smoking? How can you maximize the return on your investment at an all-you-can-eat buffet? Is it possible to put a price on the human soul? Can you ever rationally justify spending thousands of dollars on a Rolex? In Ask Ariely, a broad variety of economic, ethical, and emotional dilemmas are explored and addressed through text and images. Using their trademark insight and wit, Ariely and Haefeli help us reflect on how we can reason our way through external and internal challenges. Readers will laugh, learn, and most importantly gain a new perspective on how to deal with the inevitable problems that plague our daily life. |
| predictable irrationality: Sway Ori Brafman, Rom Brafman, 2010-04-30 Why are we more likely to fall in love when we feel in danger? Why would an experienced pilot disregard his training and the rules of the aviation industry, leading to the deadliest airline crash in history? Why do we find it near-impossible to re-evaluate our first impressions of a person or situation, even when the evidence shows we were wrong? Discover the answers in Sway. We all believe we are rational beings, yet the truth is that we're much more prone to irrational behaviour than we realise or like to admit. In this compelling book, Ori and Rom Brafman reveal why. Looking at irrational behaviour in fields as diverse as medicine, archaeology and the legal system, they chart the psychological undercurrents that influence even our most basic decisions. In doing so they draw on the latest research in social psychology and behavioural economics to reveal the irresistible forces that sway us all. Sway is a fascinating insight into the way we all behave and will change the way you view the world. |
| predictable irrationality: Irrationality in Health Care Douglas E Hough, 2013-05-15 A look at the American health care system through analysis of consumer and provider behavior. The health care industry in the US is peculiar. We spend close to 18% of our GDP on health care, yet other countries get better results—and we don’t know why. To date, we still lack widely accepted answers to simple questions, such as “Would requiring everyone to buy health insurance make us better off?” Drawing on behavioral economics as an alternative to the standard tools of health economics, author Douglas E. Hough seeks to diagnose the ills of health care today more clearly. A behavioral perspective makes sense of key contradictions—from the seemingly irrational choices that we sometimes make as patients, to the incongruous behavior of physicians, to the morass of the long-lived debate surrounding reform. With the new health care law in effect, it is more important than ever that consumers, health care industry leaders, and the policymakers who are governing change reckon with the power and sources of our behavior when it comes to health. Praise for Irrationality in Health Care “Hough does an extraordinary job of distilling the literature and providing key insights to help us understand how health care consumers and providers really behave, and how government can formulate better policy. A must-read for anyone interested in the burgeoning field of behavioral economics and age-old questions in health care.” —Thomas Rice, Distinguished Professor, UCLA Fielding School of Public Health “Hough explains and applies the emerging field of behavioral economics to patient and physician decision making, providing a rationale for seemingly irrational behavior, and its particular usefulness for designing health policies.” —Paul J. Feldstein, University of California, Irvine “Balancing rigor and policy relevance, Hough shows the application of behavioral economics to health policy in a most compelling way. I liked this book so much, I wish I had written it!” —Richard Scheffler, University of California, Berkeley |
| predictable irrationality: Payoff Dan Ariely, 2016-11-17 Every day we work hard to motivate ourselves. We spend much of our time trying to motivate the people working for us, with us and in business with us. In our personal lives we try to motivate our friends, partners and children. From the economic point of view, motivation is based on a very simple trade-off: we need and want things, and we work to get them. We’re more likely to do something if we get money for it, and the more money we get, the more motivated we are. But what if our understanding of motivation and money is all wrong? In Payoff, Dan Ariely investigates the true nature of motivation and our partial blindness to the way it works. He digs to the root of money motivation, and explains how understanding it can help us to successfully approach different choices in our lives. Along the way, Ariely explores complex questions like: * Why are we willing to part with money on some occasions and not others? * Should we motivate children to do chores by giving them money? * Is there any correlation between performance efficiency and pay? * What are the taboos surrounding money and should they be challenged? We often, mistakenly, think that our motivations are simple and one dimensional. But motivations are about the essence of what pushes us forward, what make us human. Payoff explores the complex motivations that drive us, giving insight into what we really want in life and what we can do to get and give more of it more often. |
| predictable irrationality: Thinking, Fast and Slow Daniel Kahneman, 2011-11-03 One of the most influential books of the 21st century: the ground-breaking psychology classic - over 10 million copies sold - that changed the way we think about thinking 'There have been many good books on human rationality and irrationality, but only one masterpiece. That masterpiece is Thinking, Fast and Slow' Financial Times 'A lifetime's worth of wisdom' Steven D. Levitt, co-author of Freakonomics Why do we make the decisions we do? Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman, 'the world's most influential living psychologist' (Steven Pinker) revolutionised our understanding of human behaviour with Thinking, Fast and Slow. Distilling his life's work, Kahneman shows how there are two ways we make choices: fast, intuitive thinking, and slow, rational thinking. He reveals how our minds are tripped up by error, bias and prejudice (even when we think we are being logical) and gives practical techniques that enable us all to improve our decision-making. This profound exploration of the marvels and limitations of the human mind has had a lasting impact on how we see ourselves. 'The godfather of behavioural science ... his steely analysis of the human mind and its many flaws remains perhaps the most useful guide to remaining sane and steady' Sunday Times |
| predictable irrationality: The Law and Economics of Irrational Behavior Francesco Parisi, Vernon L. Smith, 2005 This collection of essays explores the most relevant developments at the interface of economics and psychology, giving special attention to models of irrational behavior, and draws the relevant implications of such models for the design of legal rules and institutions. The application of economic models of irrational behavior to law is especially challenging because specific departures from rational behavior differ markedly from one another. Furthermore, the analytical and deductive instruments of economic theory have to be reshaped to deal with the fragmented and heterogeneous findings of psychological research, turning towards a more experimental and inductive methodology. This volume brings together pioneering scholars in this area, along with some of the most exciting developments in the field of legal and economic theory. Areas of application include criminal law and sentencing, tort law, contract law, corporate law, and financial markets. |
| predictable irrationality: Amazing Decisions Dan Ariely, 2019-07-23 Dan Ariely, the New York Times bestselling author of Predictably Irrational, and illustrator Matt R. Trower present a playful graphic novel guide to better decision-making, based on the author’s groundbreaking research in behavioral economics, neuroscience, and psychology. The internationally renowned author Dan Ariely is known for his incisive investigations into the messy business of decision-making. Now, in Amazing Decisions, his unique perspective—informed by behavioral economics, neuroscience, and psychology—comes alive in the graphic form. The illustrator Matt R. Trower’s playful and expressive artwork captures the lessons of Ariely’s groundbreaking research as they explore the essential question: How can we make better decisions? Amazing Decisions follows the narrator, Adam, as he faces the daily barrage of choices and deliberations. He juggles two overlapping—and often contradictory—sets of norms: social norms and market norms. These norms inform our thinking in ways we often don’t notice, just as Adam is shadowed by the “market fairy” and the “social fairy,” each compelling him to act in certain ways. Good decision-making, Ariely argues, requires us to identify and evaluate the forces at play under different circumstances, leading to an optimal outcome. Amazing Decisions is a fascinating and entertaining guide to developing skills that will prove invaluable in personal and professional life. |
| predictable irrationality: Moral Panics and the Copyright Wars William Patry, 2009-09-03 In Moral Panics and the Copyright Wars, William Patry offers a lively, unflinching examination of the pitched battles over new technology, business models, and most of all, consumers. He lays bare how we got to where we are: a bloated, punitive legal regime that has strayed far from its modest, but important roots. A centrist and believer in appropriately balanced copyright laws, Patry concludes that the only laws we need are effective laws, laws that further the purpose of encouraging the creation of new works and learning. |
| predictable irrationality: White Fragility Robin DiAngelo, 2019-02-07 The International Bestseller 'With clarity and compassion, DiAngelo allows us to understand racism as a practice not restricted to bad people. In doing so, she moves our national discussions forward. This is a necessary book for all people invested in societal change' Claudia Rankine Anger. Fear. Guilt. Denial. Silence. These are the ways in which ordinary white people react when it is pointed out to them that they have done or said something that has - unintentionally - caused racial offence or hurt. After, all, a racist is the worst thing a person can be, right? But these reactions only serve to silence people of colour, who cannot give honest feedback to 'liberal' white people lest they provoke a dangerous emotional reaction. Robin DiAngelo coined the term 'White Fragility' in 2011 to describe this process and is here to show us how it serves to uphold the system of white supremacy. Using knowledge and insight gained over decades of running racial awareness workshops and working on this idea as a Professor of Whiteness Studies, she shows us how we can start having more honest conversations, listen to each other better and react to feedback with grace and humility. It is not enough to simply hold abstract progressive views and condemn the obvious racists on social media - change starts with us all at a practical, granular level, and it is time for all white people to take responsibility for relinquishing their own racial supremacy. 'By turns mordant and then inspirational, an argument that powerful forces and tragic histories stack the deck fully against racial justice alongside one that we need only to be clearer, try harder, and do better' David Roediger, Los Angeles Review of Books 'The value in White Fragility lies in its methodical, irrefutable exposure of racism in thought and action, and its call for humility and vigilance' Katy Waldman, New Yorker 'A vital, necessary, and beautiful book' Michael Eric Dyson |
| predictable irrationality: Neuroeconomic and Behavioral Aspects of Decision Making Kesra Nermend, Małgorzata Łatuszyńska, 2017-10-06 This proceedings volume presents the latest scientific research and trends in experimental economics, with particular focus on neuroeconomics. Derived from the 2016 Computational Methods in Experimental Economics (CMEE) conference held in Szczecin, Poland, this book features research and analysis of novel computational methods in neuroeconomics. Neuroeconomics is an interdisciplinary field that combines neuroscience, psychology and economics to build a comprehensive theory of decision making. At its core, neuroeconomics analyzes the decision-making process not only in terms of external conditions or psychological aspects, but also from the neuronal point of view by examining the cerebral conditions of decision making. The application of IT enhances the possibilities of conducting such analyses. Such studies are now performed by software that provides interaction among all the participants and possibilities to register their reactions more accurately. This book examines some of these applications and methods. Featuring contributions on both theory and application, this book is of interest to researchers, students, academics and professionals interested in experimental economics, neuroeconomics and behavioral economics. |
| predictable irrationality: Choice Hacking Jennifer L. Clinehens, 2020-06-16 What if you could use Nobel prize-winning science to predict the choices your customers will make? Customer and user behaviors can seem irrational. Shaped by mental shortcuts and psychological biases, their actions often appear random on the surface. In Choice Hacking, we'll learn to predict these irrational behaviors and apply the science of decision-making to create unforgettable customer experiences. Discover a framework for designing experiences that doesn't just show you what principles to apply, but introduces a new way of thinking about customer behavior. You'll finish Choice Hacking feeling confident and ready to transform your experience with science. In Choice Hacking, you'll discover: - How to make sure your customer experience is designed for what people do (not what they say they'll do) - How to increase the odds that customers will make the right choice in any environment - How to design user experiences that drive action and engagement - How to create retail experiences that persuade and drive brand love - How brands like Uber, Netflix, Disney, and Starbucks apply these principles in their customer and user experiences Additional resources included with the book: - Access to free video Companion Course - Access to exclusive free resources, tools, examples, and use cases online Who will benefit from reading Choice Hacking? This book was written for anyone who wants to better understand customer and user decision-making. Whether you're a consultant, strategist, digital marketer, small business owner, writer, user experience designer, student, manager, or organizational leader, you will find immediate value in Choice Hacking. About the Author Jennifer Clinehens is currently Head of Experience at a major global experience agency. She holds a Master's degree in Brand Management as well as an MBA from Emory University's Goizueta School. Ms. Clinehens has client-side and consulting experience working for brands like AT&T, McDonald's, and Adidas, and she's helped shape customer experiences across the globe. A recognized authority in marketing and customer experience, she is also the author of CX That Sings: An Introduction To Customer Journey Mapping. To learn more about this book or contact the author, please visit ChoiceHacking.com |
| predictable irrationality: Meltdown Patrick J. Michaels, 2005 Why do scientists so often offer dire predictions about the future of the environment? In Meltdown, climatologist Patrick Michaels argues that the way we do science today creates a culture of exaggeration and a political comunity that then takes credit for having saved us from certain doom. |
| predictable irrationality: Economic Fables Ariel Rubinstein, 2012 I had the good fortune to grow up in a wonderful area of Jerusalem, surrounded by a diverse range of people: Rabbi Meizel, the communist Sala Marcel, my widowed Aunt Hannah, and the intellectual Yaacovson. As far as I'm concerned, the opinion of such people is just as authoritative for making social and economic decisions as the opinion of an expert using a model. Part memoir, part crash-course in economic theory, this deeply engaging book by one of the world's foremost economists looks at economic ideas through a personal lens. Together with an introduction to some of the central concepts in modern economic thought, Ariel Rubinstein offers some powerful and entertaining reflections on his childhood, family and career. In doing so, he challenges many of the central tenets of game theory, and sheds light on the role economics can play in society at large. Economic Fables is as thought-provoking for seasoned economists as it is enlightening for newcomers to the field. |
| predictable irrationality: The Soul of Enterprise Ronald J Baker, Ed Kless, 2015-02-26 The world's economy has been transformed from a twentieth-century materials-based economy to the Age of the Knowledge-Based Economy - and the currency of this realm is ideas, imagination, creativity, and knowledge. According The World Bank, 80% of the developed world's wealth now resides in human capital. Perhaps President Ronald Reagan said it best in his address to Moscow State University on May 31, 1988: Like a chrysalis, we're emerging from the economy of the Industrial Revolution - an economy confined and limited by the Earth's physical resources - into, as one economist titled his book, the economy in mind, in which there are no bounds on human imagination and the freedom to create is the most precious natural resource. Written by Ronald Baker and Ed Kless, hosts of The Soul of Enterprise: Business in the Knowledge Economy, the popular radio show on Voice America's Business Channel, The Soul of Enterprise: Dialogues on Business in the Knowledge Economy sounds the clarion call that organizations can no longer ignore this seismic shift that has occurred in the economy since 1959. The Soul of Enterprise introduces the three components of Intellectual Capital - human capital, social capital, and structural capital - and how to leverage them to create wealth in today's economy, by revealing: The physical fallacy - why wealth no longer consists of tangible things, but of ideas, imagination and knowledge from human minds The best learning tool ever invented: After Action Reviews Why Frederick Taylor and the Scientific Management movement was a fraud and the wrong focus for knowledge workers The fact that effectiveness always and everywhere trumps efficiency The First Law of Pricing: All value is subjective The Second Law of Pricing: All prices are contextual The Morality of Markets: Doing well and doing good Why your organization - and you - need to be driven by a higher purpose than profit The Soul of Enterprise will inspire and challenge readers to unlock the enormous financial and competitive power hidden in the intellectual capital of their organizations and knowledge workers. |
| predictable irrationality: Organizational Myopia Maurizio Catino, 2013-02-14 The book examines the mechanisms that generate myopia in organizations and explores how organizations can foresee and contain unexpected events. |
| predictable irrationality: How We Decide Jonah Lehrer, 2010-01-14 The first book to use the unexpected discoveries of neuroscience to help us make the best decisions Since Plato, philosophers have described the decision-making process as either rational or emotional: we carefully deliberate, or we “blink” and go with our gut. But as scientists break open the mind’s black box with the latest tools of neuroscience, they’re discovering that this is not how the mind works. Our best decisions are a finely tuned blend of both feeling and reason—and the precise mix depends on the situation. When buying a house, for example, it’s best to let our unconscious mull over the many variables. But when we’re picking a stock, intuition often leads us astray. The trick is to determine when to use the different parts of the brain, and to do this, we need to think harder (and smarter) about how we think. Jonah Lehrer arms us with the tools we need, drawing on cutting-edge research as well as the real-world experiences of a wide range of “deciders”—from airplane pilots and hedge fund investors to serial killers and poker players. Lehrer shows how people are taking advantage of the new science to make better television shows, win more football games, and improve military intelligence. His goal is to answer two questions that are of interest to just about anyone, from CEOs to firefighters: How does the human mind make decisions? And how can we make those decisions better? |
| predictable irrationality: The Undoing Project Michael Lewis, 2016-12-06 THE NEW INTERNATIONAL BESTSELLER FROM THE AUTHOR OF THE BIG SHORT AND FLASH BOYS 'A gripping account of how two psychologists reshaped the way we think ... What a story it is' Sunday Times 'You'll love it ... full of surprises and no small degree of tragedy' Tim Harford In 1969 two men met on a university campus. Their names were Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. They were different in every way. But they were both obsessed with the human mind - and both happened to be geniuses. Together, they would change the way we see the world. 'An enchanted collaboration ... During the final pages, I was blinking back tears' The New York Times 'My favourite writer full stop. Engages both heart and brain like no other' Daily Telegraph 'Brilliant, a wonderful book, a masterclass' Spectator 'Psychology's Lennon and McCartney ... Lewis is exactly the storyteller they deserve' Observer |
| predictable irrationality: America Beyond Capitalism Gar Alperovitz, 2011 America Beyond Capitalism is a book whose time has come. Gar Alperovitz's expert diagnosis of the long-term structural crisis of the American economic and political system is accompanied by detailed, practical answers to the problems we face as a society. Unlike many books that reserve a few pages of a concluding chapter to offer generalized, tentative solutions, Alperovitz marshals years of research into emerging new economy strategies to present a comprehensive picture of practical bottom-up efforts currently underway in thousands of communities across the United States. All democratize wealth and empower communities, not corporations: worker-ownership, cooperatives, community land trusts, social enterprises, along with many supporting municipal, state and longer term federal strategies as well. America Beyond Capitalism is a call to arms, an eminently practical roadmap for laying foundations to change a faltering system that increasingly fails to sustain the great American values of equality, liberty and meaningful democracy. |
| predictable irrationality: The (honest) Truth about Dishonesty Dan Ariely, 2013 What makes us cheat? How and why do we rationalise deception of ourselves and other people, and make ourselves 'wishfully blind' to the blindingly obvious? If you've ever wondered how a whole company can turn a blind eye to evident misdemeanours within their ranks, whether people are born dishonest and whether you can really be successful by being totally, brutally honest, then Dan Ariely has the answers. |
| predictable irrationality: Passages Gail Sheehy, 2013-10-08 Learn how to better navigate the challenges of adult life with Gail Sheehy’s landmark bestseller—named one of the ten most influential books of our times by the Library of Congress. For decades, Gail Sheehy’s Passages has been inspiring readers to see the predictable crises of adult life as opportunities for growth. She charts the stages between 18 and 50 as unfolding in a pattern of adult development: once recognized, more easily managed. Passages is an insightful road map of adulthood that illustrates with vivid stories our continuing personality and sexual changes throughout the “Trying 20s,” “Catch 30s,” “Forlorn 40s,” and “Refreshed (or Resigned) 50s.” One comment is continuously repeated by men, women, singles, couples, and people who recover from a midlife crisis: “This book changed my life.” |
| predictable irrationality: Beyond Mechanical Markets Roman Frydman, Michael D. Goldberg, 2011-02-07 A powerful challenge to contemporary economics and a new agenda for global finance In the wake of the global financial crisis that began in 2007, faith in the rationality of markets has lost ground to a new faith in their irrationality. The problem, Roman Frydman and Michael Goldberg argue, is that both the rational and behavioral theories of the market rest on the same fatal assumption—that markets act mechanically and economic change is fully predictable. In Beyond Mechanical Markets, Frydman and Goldberg show how the failure to abandon this assumption hinders our understanding of how markets work, why price swings help allocate capital to worthy companies, and what role government can and can't play. The financial crisis, Frydman and Goldberg argue, was made more likely, if not inevitable, by contemporary economic theory, yet its core tenets remain unchanged today. In response, the authors show how imperfect knowledge economics, an approach they pioneered, provides a better understanding of markets and the financial crisis. Frydman and Goldberg deliver a withering critique of the widely accepted view that the boom in equity prices that ended in 2007 was a bubble fueled by herd psychology. They argue, instead, that price swings are driven by individuals' ever-imperfect interpretations of the significance of economic fundamentals for future prices and risk. Because swings are at the heart of a dynamic economy, reforms should aim only to curb their excesses. Showing why we are being dangerously led astray by thinking of markets as predictably rational or irrational, Beyond Mechanical Markets presents a powerful challenge to conventional economic wisdom that we can't afford to ignore. |
| predictable irrationality: Drive Daniel H. Pink, 2010-01-21 Forget everything you thought you knew about how to motivate people - at work, at school, at home. It's wrong. As Daniel H. Pink explains in his new and paradigm-shattering book DRIVE: THE SURPRISING TRUTH ABOUT WHAT MOTIVATES US, the secret to high performance and satisfaction in today's world is the deeply human need to direct our own lives, to learn and create new things, and to do better by ourselves and our world. Drawing on four decades of scientific research on human motivation, Pink exposes the mismatch between what science knows and what business does - and how that affects every aspect of our lives. He demonstrates that while the old-fashioned carrot-and-stick approach worked successfully in the 20th century, it's precisely the wrong way to motivate people for today's challenges. In DRIVE, he reveals the three elements of true motivation: AUTONOMY - the desire to direct our own lives; MASTERY - the urge to get better and better at something that matters; PURPOSE - the yearning to do what we do in the service of something larger than ourselves. Along the way, he takes us to companies that are enlisting new approaches to motivation and introduces us to the scientists and entrepreneurs who are pointing a bold way forward. DRIVE is bursting with big ideas - the rare book that will change how you think and transform how you live. |
| predictable irrationality: The Gray Rhino Michele Wucker, 2016-04-05 The #1 English-language bestseller in China--the book that is shaping China's planning and policy for the future. A gray rhino is a highly probable, high impact yet neglected threat: kin to both the elephant in the room and the improbable and unforeseeable black swan. Gray rhinos are not random surprises, but occur after a series of warnings and visible evidence. The bursting of the housing bubble in 2008, the devastating aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and other natural disasters, the new digital technologies that upended the media world, the fall of the Soviet Union...all were evident well in advance. Why do leaders and decision makers keep failing to address obvious dangers before they spiral out of control? Drawing on her extensive background in policy formation and crisis management, as well as in-depth interviews with leaders from around the world, Michele Wucker shows in The Gray Rhino how to recognize and strategically counter looming high impact threats. Filled with persuasive stories, real-world examples, and practical advice, The Gray Rhino is essential reading for managers, investors, planners, policy makers, and anyone who wants to understand how to profit by avoiding getting trampled. |
| predictable irrationality: The Irrational Jesus Ken Evers-Hood, 2016-11-10 Behavioral science books are popping up on bestseller lists: Predictably Irrational; Thinking, Fast and Slow; Nudge; Decisive. Even the White House launched a Behavioral Insights Team to match the British Ministry of Nudges. Conspicuously absent from this conversation is the church. The Irrational Jesus bridges this gap. Ken Evers-Hood looks at Jesus through the lens of cognitive heuristics (mental shortcuts) and biases (blind spots) and makes the case that a fully human Jesus is predictably irrational--just like all of us. Find out how the Apostle Paul's community building mirrors a prisoner's dilemma game and how this makes Paul an irrational leader, too. Discover how playing better games in church can foster hopeful, flourishing communities. Improve your decision-making; learn when to plan for irrationality and when to live into it. The Irrational Jesus addresses these issues and more. Integrating the insights of behavioral economists such as Dan Ariely, the gameful thinking of Jane McGonigal, and cutting-edge ideas from decision theory, Evers-Hood articulates a behavioral theology for fully human pastors of fully human congregations--a fresh perspective that will change how pastors and other church leaders see themselves, the institutions they serve, and the scriptural and theological tradition. |
| predictable irrationality: Nudge Richard H. Thaler, Cass R Sunstein, 2012-10-04 The completely updated, final edition of the global bestseller - one of the most influential books of the 21st century 'Few books can be said to have changed the world, but Nudge did. The Final Edition is marvellous: funny, useful, and wise' Daniel Kahneman Nudge has transformed the way individuals, companies and governments look at the world - and in the process has become one of the most important books of the twenty-first century. This completely updated edition offers a wealth of new insights for fans and newcomers alike - about COVID-19, diet, personal finance, retirement savings, medical care, organ donation, and climate change. Every day we make decisions: about the things we buy or the meals we eat; about the investments we make and the time we spend; about our health and that of the planet. Unfortunately, we often choose badly. We are all susceptible to biases that can lead us to make bad decisions that make us poorer, less healthy and less happy. And, as Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein show, no choice is ever presented to us in a neutral way. But by knowing how people think, we can make it easier for them to choose what is best for themselves, for their families and for society. With brilliant insight and wonderful levity, Thaler and Sunstein demonstrate how best to nudge us in the right directions, without ever restricting our freedom of choice. |
| predictable irrationality: You Can Negotiate Anything Herb Cohen, 2007 Negotiation is a field of knowledge and endeavor that focuses on gaining the favour of people from whom we want things : prestige, freedom, money, justice, status, love, security and recognition. 30 weeks on the New York Times Bestsellers List, this book is the result of thirty years of laborious work, interaction and involvement of the author, Herb Cohen, in thousands of negotiations. He aims to illuminate one’s reality and its opportunities and points out thinking and behaviors, options and alternatives from which one can choose and have a way of getting what one wants. |
| predictable irrationality: The "God" Part of the Brain Matthew Alper, 2008-09-01 A thought-provoking study of science and religion about our human need to believe in a higher power, for spiritual seekers and atheists alike. In The God Part of the Brain, Matthew Alper pioneers a radical theory: the human inclination toward spirituality and belief in a higher power can be attributed to a specific part of our brain. This bold hypothesis takes us on an exciting journey that merges science, philosophy, and spirituality in a unique way. Alper engages readers with compelling arguments based on neuroscience, evolutionary biology, and anthropology, provoking profound thought on the nature of existence and our inherent need for spiritual meaning as a coping mechanism that emerged in humans to help us survive our unique and otherwise debilitating awareness of death. His narrative is accessible yet deeply profound, providing insights that stimulate both intellectual curiosity and spiritual introspection. Key Features: Groundbreaking Hypothesis: Presents a bold new theory about the neuroscientific basis of human spirituality. Interdisciplinary Approach: Combines insights from neuroscience, evolutionary biology, and anthropology to explore spiritual experiences. Intellectually Stimulating: Challenges readers to contemplate profound questions about existence, faith, and the human mind. Accessible Narrative: Engages readers with a narrative that is both informative and accessible, regardless of their scientific background. Provocative and Thoughtful: Invites deep introspection about our inherent need for spiritual meaning. Praise for The God Part of the Brain This cult classic in many ways parallels Rene Descartes' search for reliable and certain knowledge...Drawing on such disciplines as philosophy, psychology, and biology, Alper argues that belief in a spiritual realm is an evolutionary coping method that developed to help humankind deal with the fear of death...Highly recommended.— Library Journal I very much enjoyed the account of your spiritual journey and believe it would make excellent reading for every college student - the resultant residence-hall debates would be the best part of their education. It often occurs to me that if, against all odds, there is a judgmental God and heaven, it will come to pass that when the pearly gates open, those who had the valor to think for themselves will be escorted to the head of the line, garlanded, and given their own personal audience. — Edward O. Wilson, two-time Pulitzer Prize-Winner This is an essential book for those in search of a scientific understanding of man's spiritual nature. Matthew Alper navigates the reader through a labyrinth of intriguing questions and then offers undoubtedly clear answers that lead to a better understanding of our objective reality. — Elena Rusyn, MD, PhD; Gray Laboratory; Harvard Medical School What a wonderful book you have written. It was not only brilliant and provocative but also revolutionary in its approach to spirituality as an inherited trait.— Arnold Sadwin, MD, former chief of Neuropsychiatry at the University of Pennsylvania A lively manifesto...For the discipline's specific application to the matter at hand, I've seen nothing that matches the fury of The 'God' Part of the Brain, which perhaps explains why it's earned something of a cult following. — Salon.com All 6 billion plus inhabitants of Earth should be in possession of this book. Alper's tome should be placed in the sacred writings' section of libraries, bookstores, and dwellings throughout the world. Matthew Alper is the new Galileo...Immensely important...Defines in a clear and concise manner what each of us already knew but were afraid to admit and exclaim.— John Scoggins, PhD Vibrant ... vivacious. An entertaining and provocative introduction to speculations concerning the neural basis of spirituality.— Free Inquiry Magazine |
| predictable irrationality: The McDonaldization of Society George Ritzer, 2018-01-12 The author is a proud sponsor of the 2020 SAGE Keith Roberts Teaching Innovations Award—enabling graduate students and early career faculty to attend the annual ASA pre-conference teaching and learning workshop. The book that made McDonaldization part of the lexicon of contemporary sociological theory, read by hundreds of thousands of students, is now in its Ninth Edition! George Ritzer′s seminal work of critical sociology, The McDonaldization of Society, continues to stand as one of the pillars of modern day sociological thought. Building on the argument that the fast food restaurant has become the model for the rationalization process today, this book links theory to contemporary life in a globalized world and resonates with students in a way that few other books do. Ritzer opens students’ eyes to many current issues and shows how McDonaldization’s principles apply to other settings, especially in the areas of consumption and globalization. This new edition has been significantly reoriented to reflect our experience of McDonaldization in the world of online consumption. New to this Edition Examines how retailers like Amazon represent a new era of datafication, the transformation of vast amounts of information into quantifiable data. Discusses how the digital world has almost unlimited potential to turn consumers into prosumers doing volunteer work formerly done by paid employees. This edition is more streamlined than previous editions to sharpen its argument and message, and make it more useable as a secondary reading in a wide range of courses |
| predictable irrationality: The Einstein Prophecy Robert Masello, 2016 Modern science and primordial supernatural powers collide as war rages in 1944. Struggling to decipher the contents of a sarcophagus from an Egyptian tomb, Lucas and Simone unwittingly release forces for both good and unmitigated evil. The fate of the world hangs on Professor Einstein's secret research and on Lucas's ability to defeat an unholy adversary-- |
| predictable irrationality: Biased Henry Priest, 2019-05-26 The Rational Man?Homo sapiens, the biological name for humans, literally means discerning, wise or sensible human being. But, are humans really sensible or rational? The Biased BrainResearch in psychology and economics has shown that human beings are systematically irrational. Not only do they misjudge situations, but they do it in fairly predictable patterns. Famous BiasesThis compilation of academic research by eminent psychologists and economists presents 50 famous cognitive biases that impair our judgment. These biases occur frequently and affect us all - from the baker to the banker, the pariah to the priest. 'Bias-in-Action' Alongside the biases you will find an easy-to-use tool or 'Bias-in-Action' to help you understand how the bias operates and prepare you for possible counter to them. FREE Bonus!Upon buying this paperback, you get a copy of its Kindle eBook, absolutely FREE! |
| predictable irrationality: A Little Life Hanya Yanagihara, 2016 Moving to New York to pursue creative ambitions, four former classmates share decades marked by love, loss, addiction, and haunting elements from a brutal childhood. |
| predictable irrationality: The Map and the Territory Alan Greenspan, 2013-10-22 Like all of us, though few so visibly, Alan Greenspan was forced by the financial crisis of 2008 to question some fundamental assumptions about risk management and economic forecasting. No one with any meaningful role in economic decision making in the world saw beforehand the storm for what it was. How had our models so utterly failed us? To answer this question, Alan Greenspan embarked on a rigorous and far-reaching multiyear examination of how Homo economicus predicts the economic future, and how it can predict it better. Economic risk is a fact of life in every realm, from home to business to government at all levels. Whether we’re conscious of it or not, we make wagers on the future virtually every day, one way or another. Very often, however, we’re steering by out-of-date maps, when we’re not driven by factors entirely beyond our conscious control. The Map and the Territory is nothing less than an effort to update our forecasting conceptual grid. It integrates the history of economic prediction, the new work of behavioral economists, and the fruits of the author’s own remarkable career to offer a thrillingly lucid and empirically based grounding in what we can know about economic forecasting and what we can’t.The book explores how culture is and isn't destiny and probes what we can predict about the world's biggest looming challenges, from debt and the reform of the welfare state to natural disasters in an age of global warming. No map is the territory, but Greenspan’s approach, grounded in his trademark rigor, wisdom, and unprecedented context, ensures that this particular map will assist in safe journeys down many different roads, traveled by individuals, businesses, and the state. |
| predictable irrationality: Winning Conditions Christine Hofbeck, 2020-09-08 WITH WINNING CONDITIONS, EVERYONE CAN FIND THEIR EXTRAORDINARY. Let’s face it—professional success isn’t built only on the work itself. Instead, it’s often largely influenced by the manner in which you share or present your work. Small improvements in delivery can result in substantial improvements in outcome. People succeed not simply because they deliver a winning work product or idea, but also because they deliver their work in a winning way. Winning Conditions is a joyful, insightful, and empowering book about delivering your work and ideas so that they (and you!) are more likely to be recognized, accepted, and celebrated. With Winning Conditions, you can show the world what you are capable of—it’s probably more than you ever thought possible. |
predictably irrational - Duke University
to real markets. . . . For example, the competitive nature of markets encourages individu-alistic behavior and selects for participants. with those tendencies. Compared to lab behavior, there …
Lecture 10: Psychology of probability: predictable irrationality.
Lecture 10: Psychology of probability: predictable irrationality. March 7, 2016 Here are two extreme views of human rationality. There is much evidence that people are not rational, in the …
Predictably Irrational Revised and Expanded - AddictBooks
irrationality with card-carrying rational economists, whose disregard of my experimental data was almost as intense as their nearly religious belief in rationality (if Adam Smith’s “invisible hand” …
Predictably Irrational, Revised and Expanded Edition: The …
Predictably Irrational, Revised and Expanded Edition: The Hidden Forces That Shape Us by Dan Ariely Dan Ariely, a behavioral economist and New York Times bestselling writer, writes about …
INTRODUCTION 1: THE TRUTH ABOUT RELATIVITY Why …
Nov 11, 2021 · onsBy Dan ArielyINTRODUCTION This is a journey int. he many ways we are all irrational. But there are ways in which we are predictably irrational. My goal, by the end. …
Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our …
How an Injury Led Me to Irrationality and to the Research Described Here xi CHAPTER I The Truth about Relativity: Why Everything Is Relative—Even When It Shouldn't Be 1 CHAPTER 2 …
Predictable Irrationality Copy - netsec.csuci.edu
Predictable irrationality is a fascinating area of study that highlights the complexities of human decision-making. By understanding the psychological mechanisms that drive our seemingly …
The Upside of Irrationality - ITS YOUR MONEY AND ESTATE
Another aspect of our predictable irrationality around money relates to loyalty toward others. In a purely social environment, people often make generous and altruistic choices. But the moment …
On Chance and Unpredictability: lectures on the links between ...
Preface This book is an extended write-up of some lectures in a course I have given in Berkeley every few years since 2002, most recently in Fall 2014.
Addressing Predictable Irrationality: Insights from Practice
, declare that this thesis titled, “Addressing Predictable Irrational-ity: Insights from Practice” and the work presented in it are my own. I confirm that: This work was done wholly or mainly …
Deliberation, Distraction and the Role of the Unconscious in …
2005). System 1, however, is the source of “predictable irrationality” (Ariely, 2008). Prescriptions are offered to, if not prevent unconscious decision-making altogether, then at least foolproof it …
Ariely, Dan. The upside of irrationality: the unexpected …
Microsoft Word - Ariely.Theupsideofirrationality.docx. Ariely, Dan. The upside of irrationality: the unexpected benefits of defying logic at work and at home. Harper, 2010. 334p bibl index ISBN …
Dealing with Predictable Irrationality – Actuarial Ideas to …
Market Value of Banks and Insurers 0 20 40 Banks Insurance DJ Stoxx 1800 Index:Global Changein USD, % 2-60-40-20 2005 2006 2007 2008 YTD Source: www.stoxx.com, 11 Feb ...
Are We All Predictably Irrational? An Experimental Analysis
The problem seems to be widespread. The popular book Predictably Irrational begins with findings from an experiment of 100 graduate students from MIT’s elite business school …
Dealing with Predictable Irrationality – Actuarial Ideas to …
Dealing with Predictable Irrationality – Actuarial Ideas to Strengthen Global Financial Risk Management Tony Coleman, International Actuarial Association
The Predictable Hazards of Unpredictability: Why Madman …
ability or irrationality.7 Targets often do not receive what the signaler believes to be transmitted. What makes this problem even more pernicious is that sig-nalers tend to overestimate an …
Dealing with Predictable Irrationality – Actuarial Ideas to …
Further Insurance Challenges in EU Solvency II development has improved capacity to cope BUT, Solvency II based on one year VaR (99.5%) risk measure This relates capital required to …
Exploitable Predictable Irrationality: The FIFA World Cup
Inspired by their work, we propose a novel approach to exploit this effect on the aggregate international level with the. following three unique features: i) The aggregate effect does not …
Exploitable Predictable Irrationality: The FIFA World
2 Exploitable Predictable Irrationality: The FIFA World Cup Effect on the U.S. Stock Market Abstract In a recently published paper, Edmans, García, and Norli (2007) reveal a strong
Predictability in Financial Analyst - JSTOR
forecast errors are predictable even when analysts are fully rational and pro-cess information efficiently. We emphasize that this predictability is an ex post result of learning rather than …
Global Challenges for the Actuarial Profession
• “Dealing with Predictable Irrationality – Actuarial Ideas to Strengthen Global Financial Risk Management” – IAA Jan 2009 • Targeted at the Financial Stability Forum, Governments, …
Predictability in Financial Analyst - JSTOR
forecast errors are predictable even when analysts are fully rational and pro-cess information efficiently. We emphasize that this predictability is an ex post result of learning rather than …
Foundational questions about sports rating models
Psychology of probability: predictable irrationality Mixing: physical randomness, the local uniformity principle and card shu ing Game theory The Kelly criterion for favorable games: …
DAN ARIELY Use Goal Setting to Increase Motivation LG
work with predictable irrationality, making it easier for people to achieve their goals. In this lesson, he focuses on how to set both aspirational and incremental goals to keep your team motivated …
AUSTRALASIAN DISPUTE RESOLUTION JOURNAL
Predictable irrationality in mediation: Insights from behavioural economics – Laurence Boulle This article examines the potential relevance of developments in cognitive psychology and neuro …
Exploitable Predictable Irrationality: The FIFA World Cup …
2 Exploitable Predictable Irrationality: The FIFA World Cup Effect on the U.S. Stock Market Abstract In a recently published paper, Edmans, García, and Norli (2007) reveal a strong
Spatial Networks and Probability - University of California, …
Jun 11, 2012 · (22) Psychology of probability: predictable irrationality (18) Global economic risks (17) Everyday perception of chance (16) Luck (16) Science ction meets science (14) Risk to …
Ariely, Dan. The upside of irrationality: the unexpected …
Ariely, Dan. The upside of irrationality: the unexpected benefits of defying logic at work and at home. Harper, 2010. 334p bibl index ISBN 9780061995033, $27.99 Following his popular …
Global Challenges for the Actuarial Profession
•“Dealing with Predictable Irrationality – Actuarial Ideas to Strengthen Global Financial Risk Management” –IAA Feb 2009 Targeted at the Financial Stability Forum, Governments, and …
The McDonaldization of Society - people.morrisville.edu
“the irrationality of rationality.”... EFFICIENCY The process of rationalization leads to a society in which a great deal of emphasis is placed on finding the best or optimum means to any given …
Studia Humana The Emotivism of Law. Adrian Mróz
Next, I expand on the thesis on the predictable irrationality of humans, which was created by the behavioral economist Dan Ariely and on the psychological take of mental heuristics by Daniel ...
Addressing Predictable Irrationality: Insights from Practice
Addressing Predictable Irrationality: Insights from Practice. by Robert W. ATSON. The traditional repertoire of techniques available to mediators is well-suited to as-sisting negotiators in …
Studia Humana The Emotivism of Law. Adrian Mróz
paradox.” Next, I expand on the thesis on the predictable irrationality of humans, which was created by the behavioral economist Dan Ariely and on the psychological take of mental …
Studia Humana The Emotivism of Law. Adrian Mróz
Systematic Irrationality, Imagined Orders, and the Spirit of Decision Making Adrian Mróz Jagiellonian University in Cracow, Poland e-mail: amroz.muzyka@gmail.com Abstract: The …
JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL EDUCATION - jfedweb.org
294 Does Learning the Principles of Finance Overcome Predictable Irrationality? By Cassandra Marshall and Jerry L. Stevens SPECIAL TOPICS 313 A Comparison of CABS’ Academic …
PART ONE: The Context for Economic Analysis - Boston …
6.1 Predictable Irrationality and Nudges 6.2 Consumption and Public Policy Chapter 5: Production 1. An Overview of Production 1.1 The Goals of Production 1.2 An Economic Perspective on …
The Predictable Hazards of Unpredictability: Why Madman …
The Predictable Hazards of Unpredictability: Why Madman Behavior Doesn’t Work Samuel Seitz & Caitlin Talmadge To cite this article: Samuel Seitz & Caitlin Talmadge (2020) The …
Some Proofs of the Existence of Irrational Numbers - Ball …
Irrationality of π and π2 Nearly asubiquitous ase, but arisinginitially fromgeometricinstead ofanalytic considerations, is the number π, the ratio of any circle’s circumference to its …
Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our …
How an Injury Led Me to Irrationality and to the Research Described Here xi CHAPTER I The Truth about Relativity: Why Everything Is Relative—Even When It Shouldn't Be 1 CHAPTER 2 …
ESSENTIALS OF ECONOMICS IN CONTEXT - Boston …
6.1 Predictable Irrationality and Nudges 6.2 Consumption and Public Policy Chapter 5: Production 1. An Overview of Production 1.1 The Goals of Production 1.2 An Economic Perspective on …
Predictable EPS Growth and the Performance of Value …
predictable and correctly reflected in stock prices, value strategies will hold stocks with relatively low EPS growth. The outperformance of stocks with high EPS growth will then lead to the …
Chapter 11 Investors Decisions in the Light of Exploitable …
Keywords Behavioral finance † Irrationality † Stock exchange forecasting 11.1 Introduction There are some very important events for big number of people in the world irregardless of levels of …
Perspectives on Behavioral Finance: Does 'Irrationality' …
Finance: Does "Irrationality" Disappear with Wealth? Evidence from Expectations and Actions 1. Introduction The contributions of behavioral finance are many. The field: 1. Documents price …
JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL AND QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS …
Exploitable Predictable Irrationality: The FIFA World Cup Effect on the U.S. Stock Market Guy Kaplanski and Haim Levy PUBLISHED BY CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS FOR THE …
JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL EDUCATION - JSTOR
294 Does Learning the Principles of Finance Overcome Predictable Irrationality? By Cassandra Marshall and Jerry L. Stevens SPECIAL TOPICS 313 A Comparison of CABS’ Academic …
HEADS, YOU DIE - Analysis & Policy Observatory
The assumption leads policymakers to ignore the role of predictable irrationality in a wide range of problems across health, macro- and micro-finance, business, education, and sustainability. …
Elo Ratings and the Sports Model: a Neglected Topic in …
Psychology of probability: predictable irrationality Mixing: physical randomness, the local uniformity principle and card shu ing Game theory The Kelly criterion for favorable games: …
Dan Ariely on irrationality in the workplace - McKinsey
and behavioral experiments, where irrationality is almost always certain. Ariely has written two books on the subject—The Upside of Irrationality1 and Predictably Irrational2—and recently …
MICROECONOMICS IN CONTEXT FIFTH EDITION
4.1 Predictable Irrationality and Nudges 4.2 Government Policy Examples 4.3 Concluding Thoughts Chapter 8: Consumption and Consumer Society 1. Economic Theory and …
Unauthorized Transactions and Unintended Transactions in …
demonstrate an important concept called “predictable irrationality”, explaining why the problem is still unresolved despite the presence of a large number of protective safeguards. Irrationality …
E.R.M. Administración del Riesgo Empresario y el Rol del …
Dealing with Predictable Irrationality – Actuarial Ideas to Strengthen Global Financial Risk Management (Related News Release) Note on Enterprise Risk Management for Capital and …
MIT Open Access Articles Rational Polarization
outside, it looks like my beliefs were just as predictable as my friends’: long before I came to believe that (say) guns decrease safety, it was predictable that I would. That means that if …
VOL. 45, NO. 2 - Cambridge University Press & Assessment
Exploitable Predictable Irrationality: The FIFA World Cup Effect on the U.S. Stock Market Guy Kaplanski and Haim Levy MANAGING EDITORS Hendrik Bessembinder Stephen Brown Paul …
Predictability in Financial Analyst Forecast Errors: Learning …
tocorrelated. In this setting, analysts’ quarterly earnings forecast errors are predictable even when analysts are fully rational and process information efficiently. We emphasize that this …
Rational Polarization - PhilPapers
outside, it looks like my beliefs were just as predictable as my friends’: long before I came to believe that (say) guns decrease safety, it was predictable that I would. That means that if …
CASSANDRA D. MARSHALL - University of Richmond
“Context Dependence of Learned Rationality and Predictable Irrationality” 2016 (with Jerry L. Stevens), Revise and Resubmit at the Journal of Financial Education Presented at 2015 …
DAVIDSON ON ACTIONS: REASON, RATIONALITY, AND …
inductive, and predictable as the standard to identify causal relations and thereby deny that reasons and actions are in causal relations. In this chapter, I explain several theses in …
McDonaldization and Its Precursors - SAGE Publications Inc
Irrationality and the “Iron Cage” Despite the advantages it offers, bureaucracy suffers from the irrationality of rationality.Like a fast-food restaurant, a bureaucracy can be a dehumanizing …
Chapter 11 Investors Decisions in the Light of Exploitable …
Keywords Behavioral finance † Irrationality † Stock exchange forecasting 11.1 Introduction There are some very important events for big number of people in the world irregardless of levels of …
Tentative Schedule & Reading List (Revised October 4, …
Q. Why is it important to study economic anomalies, or “predictable irrationality”? **Class Syllabus** Activities and Assignments: • In-class experiments Required Readings: • …
Portfolio Construction And Analytics Frank J Fabozzi Series
But that order results primarily from the 'predictable irrationality' of investors, as well as from people's uncoordinated attempts to profit. The market patterns that result do not rely on …
The top ten things that math probability says about the real …
(22) Psychology of probability: predictable irrationality [5] (18) Global economic risks [4] (17) Everyday perception of chance [1] (16) Luck (16) Science ction meets science (14) Risk to …
Steve Brandon 16e Conférence internationale des actuaires …
Predictable Irrationality – Actuarial Ideas to Strengthen Global Financial Risk Management” • G20 in April adopted 4 of IAA recommendations • Follow-up Paper in July 2009 focusing on …
What is the “science of science communication”? - Cognitive …
The “public irrationality thesis” What is the “science of science communica-tion”? One could easily define it with reference to some set of signature methods and aims [Fischhoff and Scheufele, …
Individual differences in cognitive biases: Evidence against …
Individual differences in cognitive biases: Evidence against one-factor theory of rationality☆ Predrag Teovanovića,⁎, Goran Kneževićb, Lazar Stankovc a Faculty for Special Education and ...
Methodical Madness: Technical Analysis and the Irrationality …
THE IRRATIONALITY OF EXCHANGE-RATE FORECASTS* P. H. Kevin Chang and Carol L. Osler Substantial empirical research documents that exchange-rate forecasts are not formed …
IRRATIONALITY IN CONSUMER BEHAVIOR AND ITS …
This paper deals with irrationality in consumer behavior which has a big influence in ... logical and predictable steps, the behavioral economics offers a completely different angle. In many ...
Nudging individuals to increase participation in NGOs
Nevertheless, the past decades have proven that predictable irrationality rules the decision-making process, which raises the question whether it is possible to persuade others to …
