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Graham Allison's Destined for War: A Deep Dive into Sino-American Relations
The escalating tensions between the United States and China cast a long shadow over global stability. Is a catastrophic conflict inevitable? In his compelling book, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?, Graham Allison argues a chillingly persuasive "yes," unless significant shifts in policy occur. This post delves into Allison's central thesis, examining his historical analysis, his proposed solutions, and the ongoing relevance of his arguments in today's rapidly changing geopolitical landscape. We'll explore the core concepts of "Thucydides's Trap," the potential flashpoints of conflict, and what steps – if any – might prevent a devastating war.
Understanding Thucydides's Trap: The Core of Allison's Argument
Allison's central premise rests on the concept of "Thucydides's Trap," derived from the writings of the ancient Greek historian Thucydides. This trap describes the recurring pattern throughout history where a rising power's growth inevitably clashes with an established power, leading to war. Allison meticulously examines sixteen historical instances of this phenomenon, highlighting the alarmingly high probability of conflict when a rising power challenges an established one. He argues that the current relationship between the United States and China mirrors these historical patterns, with China's rapid economic and military expansion directly challenging America's existing global dominance.
The Power Dynamics at Play: A Rising China and a Reluctant US
Allison meticulously details the power dynamics between the US and China, focusing not just on military capabilities but also on economic influence, technological advancements, and ideological differences. He highlights China's ambitious Belt and Road Initiative, its growing military modernization, and its assertive stance in the South China Sea as key indicators of its rising power. Conversely, he analyzes the US's responses, often characterized by a mix of engagement and containment, revealing the inherent complexities and potential for miscalculation within this precarious relationship.
Identifying Potential Flashpoints: Taiwan, the South China Sea, and Beyond
Allison doesn't shy away from identifying specific potential flashpoints that could ignite a conflict. He devotes significant attention to the volatile situation surrounding Taiwan, emphasizing its strategic importance and the potential for a miscalculation or accidental escalation to trigger a wider war. Similarly, the ongoing disputes in the South China Sea, marked by competing territorial claims and naval posturing, are presented as another critical area of concern. Beyond these immediate flashpoints, Allison highlights the potential for conflict stemming from cyber warfare, economic sanctions, and even proxy conflicts in other regions.
Escaping Thucydides's Trap: Allison's Proposed Solutions and Their Viability
While Allison's analysis paints a grim picture, he doesn't offer a purely pessimistic outlook. He proposes various strategies to mitigate the risk of war, focusing primarily on enhanced communication, greater transparency, and a renewed commitment to diplomacy. This includes advocating for expanded dialogue between military and civilian leaders, fostering deeper cultural understanding, and avoiding actions that could be perceived as provocative or escalatory by the other side.
The Challenges of Implementation: Political Will and Practical Hurdles
The challenge, however, lies in the practical implementation of these solutions. Allison acknowledges the significant political hurdles involved, particularly the ingrained biases and ingrained narratives within both countries that hinder productive communication. Furthermore, domestic political pressures within both the US and China often prioritize short-term gains over long-term stability, further complicating efforts towards de-escalation.
The Ongoing Relevance of Destined for War in 2024
Since its publication, Destined for War has remained incredibly relevant, even gaining increased prominence amidst escalating tensions. The ongoing trade wars, the increasing militarization of the South China Sea, and the continued uncertainty surrounding Taiwan underscore the continued urgency of Allison's warnings. The book serves as a crucial reminder of the potential for catastrophic consequences should the US and China fail to navigate their increasingly complex relationship with greater wisdom and restraint.
Conclusion
Graham Allison's Destined for War is not merely a historical analysis; it's a stark warning and a call to action. His detailed examination of Thucydides's Trap and its application to the US-China relationship underscores the urgent need for both nations to engage in proactive diplomacy, enhance communication channels, and avoid actions that could trigger a devastating conflict. While the path to peace remains challenging, understanding the dynamics outlined in Allison's work is a crucial first step towards averting a future defined by war.
FAQs
1. Is Graham Allison advocating for appeasement of China? No, Allison doesn't advocate for appeasement. He argues for a nuanced approach combining strength with diplomacy, emphasizing the importance of clear communication and avoiding actions that could be perceived as escalatory.
2. Are all instances of Thucydides's Trap inevitably followed by war? No, Allison highlights instances where war was avoided. His point is that the probability of war is significantly higher in these situations, necessitating proactive measures to reduce the risk.
3. What role does technology play in Allison's analysis? Technology, particularly advancements in military technology and cyber warfare, is a crucial factor. Allison emphasizes the potential for miscalculation and accidental escalation due to technological advancements.
4. How does Allison's work compare to other analyses of US-China relations? While other analyses exist, Allison's work stands out due to its historical depth and its use of Thucydides's Trap as a framework for understanding the potential for conflict.
5. What specific policy changes does Allison recommend? Allison advocates for improved communication channels, greater transparency in military actions, and fostering deeper cultural understanding between the US and China, alongside maintaining a strong military posture.
| graham allison destined for war: Destined For War Graham Allison, 2017-05-30 NATIONAL BESTSELLER | NEW YORK TIMES NOTABLE BOOK OF THE YEAR. From an eminent international security scholar, an urgent examination of the conditions that could produce a catastrophic conflict between the United States and China—and how it might be prevented. China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants. The reason is Thucydides’s Trap: when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling one, violence is the likeliest result. Over the past five hundred years, these conditions have occurred sixteen times; war broke out in twelve. At the time of publication, an unstoppable China approached an immovable America, and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promised to make their countries “great again,” the seventeenth case was looking grim—it still is. A trade conflict, cyberattack, Korean crisis, or accident at sea could easily spark a major war. In Destined for War, eminent Harvard scholar Graham Allison masterfully blends history and current events to explain the timeless machinery of Thucydides’s Trap—and to explore the painful steps that might prevent disaster today. SHORT-LISTED FOR THE 2018 LIONEL GELBER PRIZE NAMED A BEST BOOK OF THE YEAR BY: FINANCIAL TIMES * THE TIMES (LONDON)* AMAZON “Allison is one of the keenest observers of international affairs around.” — President Joe Biden “[A] must-read book in both Washington and Beijing.” — Boston Globe “[Full of] wide-ranging, erudite case studies that span human history . . . [A] fine book.”— New York Times Book Review |
| graham allison destined for war: Everything Under the Heavens Howard W. French, 2017 From the former New York Times Asia correspondent and author of China's Second Continent, an incisive investigation of China's ideological development as it becomes an ever more aggressive player in regional and global diplomacy. / Verlagsinformation |
| graham allison destined for war: Lee Kuan Yew Graham Allison, Robert D. Blackwill, Ali Wyne, 2020-09-22 CNN “Book of the Week” Featuring a foreword by Henry Kissinger The grand strategist and founder of modern Singapore offers key insights and opinions on globalization, geopolitics, economic growth, and democracy in a series of interviews with the author of Destined for War, and others “If you are interested in the future of Asia, which means the future of the world, you’ve got to read this book.” —Fareed Zakaria, CNN When Lee Kuan Yew speaks, presidents, prime ministers, diplomats, and CEOs listen. Lee, the founding father of modern Singapore and its prime minister from 1959 to 1990, has honed his wisdom during more than fifty years on the world stage. Almost single-handedly responsible for transforming Singapore into a Western-style economic success, he offers a unique perspective on the geopolitics of East and West. American presidents from Richard Nixon to Barack Obama have welcomed him to the White House; British prime ministers from Margaret Thatcher to Tony Blair have recognized his wisdom; and business leaders from Rupert Murdoch to Rex Tillerson, CEO of Exxon Mobil, have praised his accomplishments. This book gathers key insights from interviews, speeches, and Lee’s voluminous published writings and presents them in an engaging question and answer format. Lee offers his assessment of China’s future, asserting, among other things, that “China will want to share this century as co-equals with the U.S.” He affirms the United States’ position as the world’s sole superpower but expresses dismay at the vagaries of its political system. He offers strategic advice for dealing with China and goes on to discuss India’s future, Islamic terrorism, economic growth, geopolitics and globalization, and democracy. Lee does not pull his punches, offering his unvarnished opinions on multiculturalism, the welfare state, education, and the free market. This little book belongs on the reading list of every world leader. |
| graham allison destined for war: The Beautiful Country and the Middle Kingdom John Pomfret, 2016-11-29 A remarkable history of the two-centuries-old relationship between the United States and China, from the Revolutionary War to the present day From the clipper ships that ventured to Canton hauling cargos of American ginseng to swap Chinese tea, to the US warships facing off against China's growing navy in the South China Sea, from the Yankee missionaries who brought Christianity and education to China, to the Chinese who built the American West, the United States and China have always been dramatically intertwined. For more than two centuries, American and Chinese statesmen, merchants, missionaries, and adventurers, men and women, have profoundly influenced the fate of these nations. While we tend to think of America's ties with China as starting in 1972 with the visit of President Richard Nixon to China, the patterns—rapturous enchantment followed by angry disillusionment—were set in motion hundreds of years earlier. Drawing on personal letters, diaries, memoirs, government documents, and contemporary news reports, John Pomfret reconstructs the surprising, tragic, and marvelous ways Americans and Chinese have engaged with one another through the centuries. A fascinating and thrilling account, The Beautiful Country and the Middle Kingdom is also an indispensable book for understanding the most important—and often the most perplexing—relationship between any two countries in the world. |
| graham allison destined for war: Thucydides' Other "Traps" Alan Greeley Misenheimer, 2019-06-06 The notion of a Thucydides Trap that will ensnare China and the United States in a 21st century conflict-much as the rising power of Athens alarmed Sparta and made war inevitable between the Aegean superpowers of the 5th century BCE-has received global attention since entering the international relations lexicon 6 years ago. Scholars, journalists, bloggers, and politicians in many countries, notably China, have embraced this beguiling metaphor, coined by Harvard political science professor Graham Allison, as a framework for examining the likelihood of a Sino-American war. This case study examines the Thucydides Trap metaphor and the response it has elicited. Hewing closely to what the historian of the Peloponnesian War actually says about the causes and inevitability of war, it argues that, while Thucydides' text does not support Allison's normative assertion about the inevitable result of an encounter between rising and ruling powers, the History of the Peloponnesian War (hereafter, History) does identify elements of leadership and political dynamic that bear directly on whether a clash of interests between two states is resolved through peaceful means or escalates to war. It is precisely because war typically begins with a considered decision by a national command authority to reject other options and mobilize for conflict (and thus always entails an element of choice) that insight from Thucydides' History remains relevant and beneficial for the contemporary strategist, or citizen, concerned in such decisions.Accordingly, this case study concludes that the Thucydides Trap, as conceived and presented by Graham Allison, draws welcome attention both to Thucydides and to the pitfalls of great power competition, but fails as a heuristic device or predictive tool in the analysis of contemporary events. Allison's metaphor offers, at best, a potentially misleading over-simplification of Thucydides' nuanced and problematic account of the origins of the epochal conflict that defined his age. Moreover, it overlooks actual insights from the History that can help political decisionmakers-including, but not limited to, those of the United States and China-either avoid war or, if ignored, pose genuine policy traps that can make an avoidable war more likely, and a necessary war more costly. |
| graham allison destined for war: The Improbable War Christopher Coker, 2015 The Improbable War explains why conflict between the USA and China cannot be ruled out. In 1914 war between the Great Powers was considered unlikely, yet it happened. We learn only from history, and popular though the First World War analogy is, the lessons we draw from its outbreak are usually mistaken. Among these errors is the tendency to over-estimate human rationality. All major conflicts of the past 300 years have been about the norms and rules of the international system. In China and the US the world confronts two 'exceptional' powers whose values differ markedly, with China bidding to challenge the current order. The 'Thucydidean Trap' - when a conservative status quo power confronts a rising new one - may also play its part in precipitating hostilities. To avoid stumbling into an avoidable war both Beijing and Washington need a coherent strategy, which neither of them has. History also reveals that war evolves continually. The next global conflict is likely to be played out in cyberspace and outer space and like all previous wars it will have devastating consequences. Such a war between the United States and China may seem improbable, but it is all too possible, which is why we need to discuss it now. |
| graham allison destined for war: A World in Disarray Richard Haass, 2017-01-10 “A valuable primer on foreign policy: a primer that concerned citizens of all political persuasions—not to mention the president and his advisers—could benefit from reading.” —Michiko Kakutani, The New York Times An examination of a world increasingly defined by disorder and a United States unable to shape the world in its image, from the president of the Council on Foreign Relations Things fall apart; the center cannot hold. The rules, policies, and institutions that have guided the world since World War II have largely run their course. Respect for sovereignty alone cannot uphold order in an age defined by global challenges from terrorism and the spread of nuclear weapons to climate change and cyberspace. Meanwhile, great power rivalry is returning. Weak states pose problems just as confounding as strong ones. The United States remains the world’s strongest country, but American foreign policy has at times made matters worse, both by what the U.S. has done and by what it has failed to do. The Middle East is in chaos, Asia is threatened by China’s rise and a reckless North Korea, and Europe, for decades the world’s most stable region, is now anything but. As Richard Haass explains, the election of Donald Trump and the unexpected vote for “Brexit” signals that many in modern democracies reject important aspects of globalization, including borders open to trade and immigrants. In A World in Disarray, Haass argues for an updated global operating system—call it world order 2.0—that reflects the reality that power is widely distributed and that borders count for less. One critical element of this adjustment will be adopting a new approach to sovereignty, one that embraces its obligations and responsibilities as well as its rights and protections. Haass also details how the U.S. should act towards China and Russia, as well as in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. He suggests, too, what the country should do to address its dysfunctional politics, mounting debt, and the lack of agreement on the nature of its relationship with the world. A World in Disarray is a wise examination, one rich in history, of the current world, along with how we got here and what needs doing. Haass shows that the world cannot have stability or prosperity without the United States, but that the United States cannot be a force for global stability and prosperity without its politicians and citizens reaching a new understanding. |
| graham allison destined for war: Nuclear Terrorism Graham Allison, 2004-08-09 A leading strategist opens our eyes to the greatest terrorist threat of all-and how to prevent it before it's too late Americans in the twenty-first century are keenly aware of the many forms of terrorism: hijackings, biological attacks, chemical weapons. But rarely do we allow ourselves to face squarely the deadliest form of terrorism, because it is almost too scary to think about-a terrorist group exploding a nuclear device in an American city. In this urgent call to action, Graham Allison, one of America's leading experts on nuclear weapons and national security, presents the evidence for two provocative, compelling conclusions. First, if policy makers in Washington keep doing what they are currently doing about the threat, a nuclear terrorist attack on America is likely to occur in the next decade. And if one lengthens the time frame, a nuclear strike is inevitable. Second, the surprising and largely unrecognized good news is that nuclear terrorism is, in fact, preventable. In these pages, Allison offers an ambitious but feasible blueprint for eliminating the possibility of nuclear terrorist attacks. The United States once relied on the threat of mutually assured destruction to deter the Soviet Union from launching a nuclear strike. But in today's fragmented world, a new strategy is needed, especially with nuclear material vulnerable to theft or sale through black-market channels. The choice is ours: to grab this beast by the horns or to be impaled on those horns. We do not have the luxury of hoping the problem will go away, and Allison shows why. |
| graham allison destined for war: How to Think about War Thucydides, 2019-02-05 An accessible modern translation of essential speeches from Thucydides’s History that takes readers to the heart of his profound insights on diplomacy, foreign policy, and war Why do nations go to war? What are citizens willing to die for? What justifies foreign invasion? And does might always make right? For nearly 2,500 years, students, politicians, political thinkers, and military leaders have read the eloquent and shrewd speeches in Thucydides’s History of the Peloponnesian War for profound insights into military conflict, diplomacy, and the behavior of people and countries in times of crisis. How to Think about War presents the most influential and compelling of these speeches in an elegant new translation by classicist Johanna Hanink, accompanied by an enlightening introduction, informative headnotes, and the original Greek on facing pages. The result is an ideally accessible introduction to Thucydides’s long and challenging History. Thucydides intended his account of the clash between classical Greece’s mightiest powers—Athens and Sparta—to be a “possession for all time.” Today, it remains a foundational work for the study not only of ancient history but also contemporary politics and international relations. How to Think about War features speeches that have earned the History its celebrated status—all of those delivered before the Athenian Assembly, as well as Pericles’s funeral oration and the notoriously ruthless “Melian Dialogue.” Organized by key debates, these complex speeches reveal the recklessness, cruelty, and realpolitik of Athenian warfighting and imperialism. The first English-language collection of speeches from Thucydides in nearly half a century, How to Think about War takes readers straight to the heart of this timeless thinker. |
| graham allison destined for war: Thucydides on the Outbreak of War S. N. Jaffe, 2017-03-09 The cause of great power war is a perennial issue for the student of politics. Some 2,400 years ago, in his monumental History of the Peloponnesian War, Thucydides wrote that it was the growth of Athenian power and the fear that this power inspired in Sparta which rendered the Peloponnesian War somehow necessary, inevitable, or compulsory. In this new political psychological study of Thucydides' first book, S.N. Jaffe shows how the History's account of the outbreak of the war ultimately points toward the opposing characters of the Athenian and Spartan regimes, disclosing a Thucydidean preoccupation with the interplay between nature and convention. Jaffe explores how the character of the contest between Athens and Sparta, or how the outbreak of a particular war, can reveal Thucydides' account of the recurring human causes of war and peace. The political thought of Thucydides proves bound up with his distinctive understanding of the interrelationship of particular events and more universal themes. |
| graham allison destined for war: Unrivaled Michael C. Beckley, 2018-09-15 No detailed description available for Unrivaled. |
| graham allison destined for war: Out of the Gobi Weijian Shan, 2019-01-17 Foreword by Janet Yellen Weijian Shan's Out of the Gobi is a powerful memoir and commentary that will be one of the most important books on China of our time, one with the potential to re-shape how Americans view China, and how the Chinese view life in America. Shan, a former hard laborer who is now one of Asia's best-known financiers, is thoughtful, observant, eloquent, and brutally honest, making him well-positioned to tell the story of a life that is a microcosm of modern China, and of how, improbably, that life became intertwined with America. Out of the Gobi draws a vivid picture of the raw human energy and the will to succeed against all odds. Shan only finished elementary school when Mao Zedong's Cultural Revolution tore his country apart. He was a witness to the brutality and absurdity of Mao’s policies during one of the most tumultuous eras in China’s history. Exiled to the Gobi Desert at age 15 and denied schooling for 10 years, he endured untold hardships without ever giving up his dream for an education. Shan’s improbable journey, from the Gobi to the “People’s Republic of Berkeley” and far beyond, is a uniquely American success story – told with a splash of humor, deep insight and rich and engaging detail. This powerful and personal perspective on China and America will inform Americans' view of China, humanizing the country, while providing a rare view of America from the prism of a keen foreign observer who lived the American dream. Says former Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen: “Shan’s life provides a demonstration of what is possible when China and the United States come together, even by happenstance. It is not only Shan’s personal history that makes this book so interesting but also how the stories of China and America merge in just one moment in time to create an inspired individual so unique and driven, and so representative of the true sprits of both countries.” |
| graham allison destined for war: Knights of the Borrowed Dark Dave Rudden, 2016-08-16 This imaginative new fantasy will charm fans of the Ranger’s Apprentice and Rick Riordan. Denizen Hardwick is an orphan, and his life is, well, normal. Sure, in storybooks orphans are rescued from drudgery when they discover they are a wizard or a warrior or a prophesized king. But this is real life—orphans are just kids without parents. At least that’s what Denizen thought. . . . On a particularly dark night, the gates of Crosscaper Orphanage open to a car that almost growls with power. The car and the man in it retrieve Denizen with the promise of introducing him to a long-lost aunt. But on the ride into the city, they are attacked. Denizen soon learns that monsters can grow out of the shadows. And there is an ancient order of knights who keep them at bay. Denizen has a unique connection to these knights, but everything they tell him feels like a half-truth. If Denizen joins the order, is he fulfilling his destiny, or turning his back on everything his family did to keep him alive? |
| graham allison destined for war: Safe Passage Kori Schake, 2017-11-27 History records only one peaceful transition of hegemonic power: the passage from British to American dominance of the international order. To explain why this transition was nonviolent, Kori Schake explores nine points of crisis between Britain and the U.S., from the Monroe Doctrine to the unequal “special relationship” during World War II. |
| graham allison destined for war: Strategy Strikes Back Max Brooks, John Amble, M. L. Cavanaugh, Jaym Gates, 2018-05 The most successful film franchise of all time, Star Wars thrillingly depicts an epic multigenerational conflict fought a long time ago in a galaxy far, far away. But the Star Wars saga has as much to say about successful strategies and real-life warfare waged in our own time and place. Strategy Strikes Back brings together over thirty of today's top military and strategic experts, including generals, policy advisors, seasoned diplomats, counterinsurgency strategists, science fiction writers, war journalists, and ground‑level military officers, to explain the strategy and the art of war by way of the Star Wars films. Each chapter of Strategy Strikes Back provides a relatable, outside‑the‑box way to simplify and clarify the complexities of modern military conflict. A chapter on the case for planet building on the forest moon of Endor by World War Z author Max Brooks offers a unique way to understand our own sustained engagement in war-ravaged societies such as Afghanistan. Another chapter on the counterinsurgency waged by Darth Vader against the Rebellion sheds light on the logic behind past military incursions in Iraq. Whether using the destruction of Alderaan as a means to explore the political implications of targeting civilians, examining the pivotal decisions made by Yoda and the Jedi Council to differentiate strategic leadership in theory and in practice, or considering the ruthlessness of Imperial leaders to explain the toxicity of top-down leadership in times of war and battle, Strategy Strikes Back gives fans of Star Wars and aspiring military minds alike an inspiring and entertaining means of understanding many facets of modern warfare. It is a book as captivating and enthralling as Star Wars itself. |
| graham allison destined for war: The Patriots Club Christopher Reich, 2006-07-25 Thomas Bolden grew up on the streets, his childhood a blur of fragmented memories. But now he’s managed to put his past behind him, find the woman he wants to share his life with, and carve out a successful career on Wall Street. Until, in the blink of an eye, his world is turned upside down. A bizarre kidnapping sends him fleeing for his life, his face everywhere on the TV news, and a violent, shadowy organization is framing him for crimes he did not commit. Desperately trying to get back to where he was just a day before, Bolden must re-learn the survival skills of his hardscrabble boyhood. But as Bolden–with just eleven dollars in his pocket and hunters all around him–survives one violent, harrowing hour after another, he makes a series of startling discoveries: about a mysterious woman wanted for murder…about an astounding secret rooted in history, among the country’s Founding Fathers and families…about a conspiracy lurking in the darkest corners of corporate America–and a deadly plan that only he can stop. And in the process, maybe Bolden will also find out who he really is.... Furiously paced, filled with brilliantly drawn characters from politicians to patriots, from Wall Street players to battle-hardened cops, The Patriots Club is vintage Reich: brilliant, breathtaking, and impossible to put down until the final unforgettable page is turned. |
| graham allison destined for war: Unrestricted Warfare Liang Qiao, Xiangsui Wang, 2002 Three years before the September 11 bombing of the World Trade Center-a Chinese military manual called Unrestricted Warfare touted such an attack-suggesting it would be difficult for the U.S. military to cope with. The events of September ll were not a random act perpetrated by independent agents. The doctrine of total war outlined in Unrestricted Warfare clearly demonstrates that the People's Republic of China is preparing to confront the United States and our allies by conducting asymmetrical or multidimensional attack on almost every aspect of our social, economic and political life. |
| graham allison destined for war: The Return of Great Power Rivalry Matthew Kroenig, 2020 This book seeks to answer to a central international politics: why do great powers rise and fall? It provides an innovative argument about how domestic political institutions are the key to a state's ability to amass power and influence in the international system. This text also offers a sweeping historical analysis of democratic and autocratic competitors from ancient Greece through the Cold War. This book employs a unique framework to understand and analyze the state of today's competition between the democratic United States and its autocratic competitors, Russia and China. |
| graham allison destined for war: The Hundred-Year Marathon Michael Pillsbury, 2015-02-03 One of the U.S. government's leading China experts reveals the hidden strategy fueling that country's rise – and how Americans have been seduced into helping China overtake us as the world's leading superpower. For more than forty years, the United States has played an indispensable role helping the Chinese government build a booming economy, develop its scientific and military capabilities, and take its place on the world stage, in the belief that China's rise will bring us cooperation, diplomacy, and free trade. But what if the China Dream is to replace us, just as America replaced the British Empire, without firing a shot? Based on interviews with Chinese defectors and newly declassified, previously undisclosed national security documents, The Hundred-Year Marathon reveals China's secret strategy to supplant the United States as the world's dominant power, and to do so by 2049, the one-hundredth anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic. Michael Pillsbury, a fluent Mandarin speaker who has served in senior national security positions in the U.S. government since the days of Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger, draws on his decades of contact with the hawks in China's military and intelligence agencies and translates their documents, speeches, and books to show how the teachings of traditional Chinese statecraft underpin their actions. He offers an inside look at how the Chinese really view America and its leaders – as barbarians who will be the architects of their own demise. Pillsbury also explains how the U.S. government has helped – sometimes unwittingly and sometimes deliberately – to make this China Dream come true, and he calls for the United States to implement a new, more competitive strategy toward China as it really is, and not as we might wish it to be. The Hundred-Year Marathon is a wake-up call as we face the greatest national security challenge of the twenty-first century. |
| graham allison destined for war: The Avoidable War Kevin Rudd, 2022-03-30 A war between China and the US would be catastrophic, deadly, and destructive. Unfortunately, it is no longer unthinkable. The relationship between the US and China, the world's two superpowers, is peculiarly volatile. It rests on a seismic fault of cultural misunderstanding, historical grievance, and ideological incompatibility. No other nations are so quick to offend and be offended. Their militaries play a dangerous game of chicken, corporations steal intellectual property, intelligence satellites peer and AI technicians plot. The capacity for either country to cross a fatal line grows daily. Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, who has studied, lived in, and worked with China for more than forty years, is one of the very few people who can offer real insight into the mindsets of the leadership whose judgement will determine if a war will be fought. The Avoidable War demystifies the actions of both sides, explaining and translating them for the benefit of the other. Geopolitical disaster is still avoidable, but only if these two giants can find a way to coexist without betraying their core interests through what Rudd calls managed strategic competition. Should they fail, down that path lies the possibility of a war that could rewrite the future of both countries, and the world. A lifelong student of China, Kevin Rudd has become one of today's most thoughtful analysts of China's development. The Avoidable War focuses on the signal challenge posed by China's evolution to America and to world order. Can the US and China avoid sleepwalking into a conflict? Rudd offers constructive steps for the two powers to stabilize their relations. HENRY A. KISSINGER |
| graham allison destined for war: The Great American Delusion Patrick Davies, 2020-10-27 Something has been going badly wrong in America. But what is really happening, why, and what does it mean? Could the US itself now be the greatest threat to the future of the West? What does Joe Biden need to do to get America back on track? In this fascinating account of America today, Patrick Davies, former British Deputy Ambassador to the US, sets out to understand how America, blinded by myths of its own exceptionalism, has failed to tackle serious political, social and economic problems which are exacerbating divisions in its society, poisoning its politics and ultimately fuelling America’s decline. The Great American Delusion asks whether, with global power shifting eastwards, the US can save itself and, with it, the Western world before it’s too late. Patrick Davies worked alongside the Obama and Trump White Houses for five years. He has more than 30 years’ experience of America, its people and its politics. |
| graham allison destined for war: An Uncertain Ally David L. Phillips, 2017-05-23 Under the rule of Recep Tayyip Erdogan Turkey has descended into a dictatorship, promotes the Islamist agenda, abuses human rights, limits freedom of expression in the press, and wages war against the Kurds. While Turkey has historically been important geopolitically, it has become an outlier in Europe and an uncertain ally of the United States. An Uncertain Ally is a straightforward indictment of Erdogan. Drawing on inside sources in his Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the police, the book reveals corruption and money laundering schemes that benefitted Erdogan, his cronies, and family members. Erdogan has polarized Turkish society and created conditions that led to the coup attempt of July 2016. He has also deepened divisions by accusing Fethullah Gulen, an Islamic teacher in Pennsylvania, of establishing a parallel state and masterminding the coup attempt. Erdogan has seized on the failed coup to justify a witch hunt, arresting thousands and ordering the wholesale dismissal of alleged coup sympathizers. Rather than foster reconciliation, he pursued vendettas and turned Turkey into a gulag. An Uncertain Ally exposes Turkey’s ties to jihadists in Syria and the Islamic State, questioning its suitability as a NATO member. Under Erdogan, Turkey faces a dark future that poses a danger to the region and internationally. |
| graham allison destined for war: Invasion of Privacy Christopher Reich, 2015-06-16 One woman's quest to discover the truth behind her husband's death will pit her against a new generation of cutting-edge surveillance technology and the most dangerous conspiracy in America—Invasion of Privacy is the riveting, new standalone suspense novel from New York Times bestselling author Christopher Reich. On a remote, dusty road forty miles outside of Austin, Texas, FBI agent Joe Grant and a confidential informant are killed in a deadly shootout. Left to pick up the pieces is Mary Grant, Joe's young wife and mother of their two daughters. The official report places blame for the deaths on Joe's shoulders . . . but the story just doesn't add up and Mary has too many troubling questions that need answers. How did Joe's final voice mail—containing a cryptic warning for Mary, recorded moments before the fatal shooting—disappear without a trace from her phone? Stonewalled by the FBI, Mary will be drawn into a deadly conspiracy that puts her in the crosshairs of the richest and most powerful men in America . . . and the newest and most terrifying surveillance system known to man. New York Times bestselling author Christopher Reich is the master of crafting thrillers of the highest caliber, with nonstop action and nail-biting suspense. Invasion of Privacy is his richest, most relevant novel to date and will have readers hooked from the first page to the last. Your privacy is for sale. |
| graham allison destined for war: Thucydides’s Trap? Steve Chan, 2020-01-03 The Peloponnesian War (431–404 BCE) ostensibly arose because of the fear that a rising Athens would threaten Sparta’s power in the Mediterranean. The idea of Thucydides’ Trap warns that all rising powers threaten established powers. As China increases its power relative to the United States, the theory argues, the two nations are inevitably set on a collision course toward war. How enlightening is an analogy based on the ancient Greek world of 2,500 years ago for understanding contemporary international relations? How accurate is the depiction of the history of other large armed conflicts, such as the two world wars, as a challenge mounted by a rising power to displace an incumbent hegemon?Thucydides’s Trap?: Historical Interpretation, Logic of Inquiry, and the Future of Sino-American Relations offers a critique of the claims of Thucydides’s Trap and power-transition theory. It examines past instances of peaceful accommodation to uncover lessons that can ease the frictions in ongoing Sino-American relations. |
| graham allison destined for war: Exit from Hegemony Alexander Cooley, Daniel H. Nexon, 2020 We live in a period of uncertainty about the fate of America's global leadership. Many believe that Donald Trump's presidency marks the end of liberal international order-the very system of global institutions, rules, and values that shaped the international system since the end of World War II. Exit from Hegemony, Alexander Cooley and Daniel Nexon develop a new approach to understanding the rise and decline of hegemonic orders. They identify three ways in which the liberal international order is transforming. The Trump administration, declaring America First, accelerates all three processes, lessening America's position as a world power. |
| graham allison destined for war: Twilight of the Titans Paul K. MacDonald, Joseph M. Parent, 2018-04-15 In Twilight of the Titans, Paul K. MacDonald and Joseph M. Parent examine great power transitions since 1870 to determine how declining powers choose to behave, identifying the strong incentives to moderate their behavior when the hierarchy of great powers is shifting. Challenging the conventional wisdom that such transitions push declining great powers to extreme measures, this book argues that intimidation, provocation, and preventive war are not the only alternatives to the loss of relative power and prestige. Using numerous case studies, MacDonald and Parent show how declining states tend to behave, the policy options they have, how rising states respond to those in decline, and what conditions reward particular strategic choices. |
| graham allison destined for war: China's Vision of Victory Jonathan D T Ward, 2019-03-31 Someday we may say that we never saw it coming. After seventy-five years of peace in the Pacific, a new challenger to American power has emerged, on a scale not seen in generations. Working from a deep sense of national destiny, the Chinese Communist Party is guiding a country of 1.4 billion people towards what it calls the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, and, with it, the end of an American-led world. Will this generation witness the final act for America as a superpower? Can American ingenuity, confidence, and will power outcompete the long-term strategic thinking and planning of China's Communist Party? These are the challenges that will shape the next decade and more. China's Vision of Victory brings the reader to a new understanding of China's planning, strategy, and ambitions. From seabed to space, from Africa to the Arctic, from subsurface warfare to the rise of China's global corporations, this book will illuminate for the reader the new great game of our lifetimes, and how our adversary sees it all. |
| graham allison destined for war: The Asian 21st Century Kishore Mahbubani, 2022 This open access book consists of essays written by Kishore Mahbubani to explore the challenges and dilemmas faced by the West and Asia in an increasingly interdependent world village and intensifying geopolitical competition. The contents cover four parts: Part One The End of the Era of Western Domination. The major strategic error that the West is now making is to refuse to accept this reality. The West needs to learn how to act strategically in a world where they are no longer the number 1. Part Two The Return of Asia. From the years 1 to 1820, the largest economies in the world were Asian. After 1820 and the rise of the West, however, great Asian civilizations like China and India were dominated and humiliated. The twenty-first century will see the return of Asia to the center of the world stage. Part Three The Peaceful Rise of China. The shift in the balance of power to the East has been most pronounced in the rise of China. While this rise has been peaceful, many in the West have responded with considerable concern over the influence China will have on the world order. Part Four Globalization, Multilateralism and Cooperation. Many of the world's pressing issues, such as COVID-19 and climate change, are global issues and will require global cooperation to deal with. In short, human beings now live in a global village. States must work with each other, and we need a world order that enables and facilitates cooperation in our global village. |
| graham allison destined for war: Claws of the Panda Jonathan Manthorpe, 2024-05-04 Claws of the Panda tells the story of Canada’s failure to construct a workable policy towards the People’s Republic of China. In particular, the book tells of Ottawa’s failure to recognize and confront the efforts by the Chinese Communist Party to infiltrate and influence Canadian institutions and to exert control over Canadians of Chinese heritage. It shows how Canadian leaders have constantly misjudged the reality of the relationship while the CCP and its agents have benefited from Canadian naivete. The Expanded and Updated edition of Claws of the Panda arrives at a crucial point as Canada’s delusions abouts its friendly relations with the CCP have fallen apart since the book’s initial publication. This edition sets out to uncover Ottawa’s relationship with Beijing in light of the CCP regime’s increasingly suspicious and belligerent relations with the US and Europe. The age of a distinctly Canadian bilateral relationship with Beijing is over. |
| graham allison destined for war: Great Strategic Rivalries James Lacey, 2016-10-11 From the legendary antagonism between Athens and Sparta during the Peloponnesian War to the Napoleonic Wars and the two World Wars of the twentieth century, the past is littered with long-term strategic rivalries. History tells us that such enduring rivalries can end in one of three ways: a series of exhausting conflicts in which one side eventually prevails, as in the case of the Punic Wars between ancient Rome and Carthage, a peaceful and hopefully orderly transition, like the rivalry between Great Britain and the United States at the turn of the twentieth century, or a one-sided collapse, such as the conclusion of the Cold War with the fall of the Soviet Union. However, in spite of a wealth of historical examples, the future of state rivalries remains a matter of conjecture. Great Strategic Rivalries explores the causes and implications of past strategic rivalries, revealing lessons for the current geopolitical landscape. Each chapter offers an accessible narrative of a historically significant rivalry, comprehensively covering the political, diplomatic, economic, and military dimensions of its history. Featuring original essays by world-class historians--including Barry Strauss, Geoffrey Parker, Williamson Murray, and Geoffrey Wawro--this collection provides an in-depth look at how interstate relations develop into often violent rivalries and how these are ultimately resolved. Much more than an engaging history, Great Strategic Rivalries contains valuable insight into current conflicts around the globe for policymakers and policy watchers alike. |
| graham allison destined for war: Thinking In Time Richard E. Neustadt, 2011-08-23 “A convincing case that careful analysis of the history, issues, individuals, and institutions can lead to better decisions—in business as well as in government” (BusinessWeek). Two noted professors offer easily remembered rules for using history effectively in day-to-day management of governmental and corporate affairs to avoid costly blunders. “An illuminating guide to the use and abuse of history in affairs of state” (Arthur Schlesinger). |
| graham allison destined for war: In That Time Daniel H. Weiss, 2019-11-05 Through the story of the brief, brave life of a promising poet, the president and CEO of New York's Metropolitan Museum of Art evokes the turmoil and tragedy of the Vietnam War era. In That Time tells the story of the American experience in Vietnam through the life of Michael O'Donnell, a bright young musician and poet who served as a soldier and helicopter pilot. O'Donnell wrote with great sensitivity and poetic force, and his best-known poem is among the most beloved of the war. In 1970, during an attempt to rescue fellow soldiers stranded under heavy fire, O'Donnell's helicopter was shot down in the jungles of Cambodia. He remained missing in action for almost three decades. Although he never fired a shot in Vietnam, O'Donnell served in one of the most dangerous roles of the war, all the while using poetry to express his inner feelings and to reflect on the tragedy that was unfolding around him. O'Donnell's life is both a powerful, personal story and a compelling, universal one about how America lost its way in the 1960s, but also how hope can flower in the margins of even the darkest chapters of the American story. |
| graham allison destined for war: The Beautiful Struggle (Adapted for Young Adults) Ta-Nehisi Coates, 2022-01-11 Adapted from the adult memoir by the #1 New York Times bestselling author of The Water Dancer and Between the World and Me, this father-son story explores how boys become men, and quite specifically, how Ta-Nehisi Coates became Ta-Nehisi Coates. As a child, Ta-Nehisi Coates was seen by his father, Paul, as too sensitive and lacking focus. Paul Coates was a Vietnam vet who'd been part of the Black Panthers and was dedicated to reading and publishing the history of African civilization. When it came to his sons, he was committed to raising proud Black men equipped to deal with a racist society, during a turbulent period in the collapsing city of Baltimore where they lived. Coates details with candor the challenges of dealing with his tough-love father, the influence of his mother, and the dynamics of his extended family, including his brother Big Bill, who was on a very different path than Ta-Nehisi. Coates also tells of his family struggles at school and with girls, making this a timely story to which many readers will relate. |
| graham allison destined for war: A Handbook to the Reception of Thucydides Christine Lee, 2015-01-20 A Handbook to the Reception of Thucydides offers an invaluable guide to the reception of Thucydides, with a strong emphasis on comparing and contrasting different traditions of reading and interpretation. • Presents an in-depth, comprehensive overview of the reception of the Greek historian Thucydides • Features personal reflections by eminent scholars on the significance and perennial importance of Thucydides’ work • Features an internationally renowned cast of contributors, including established academics as well as new voices in the field |
| graham allison destined for war: India in the Era of China’s Belt and Road Initiative Anil Sigdel, 2020-10-19 Anil Sigdel dives into some of the most interesting trends in international relations, such as the rising influence of China and the instruments it uses to advance its interests worldwide, chiefly among them the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI) and the interplay between China and India, and what means New Delhi employs to come after China in the wider world. To this end, Sigdel takes both a geographic view by analyzing China’s and India’s relations with key regions – South East to Central Asia, Indian Ocean Region and Africa - and a functional view scrutinizing issues of relevance to the main topic – from cultural ties to infrastructure investment and maritime security. In his incisive analysis, Sigdel provides rich details on how India’s partnership is shaping with the major stakeholders in the Indo-Pacific region such US, Japan and France, and how India is balancing these partnerships vis-à-vis the one with Russia. The conclusions point to interesting prospects for the future – China challenge has, in a way, helped India further advance its own ambition of becoming a separate pole or leading power, therefore, India is likely to pursue that status by aligning issue-wise with all the powers. |
| graham allison destined for war: The Long Game Rush Doshi, 2021-06-11 For more than a century, no US adversary or coalition of adversaries - not Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan, or the Soviet Union - has ever reached sixty percent of US GDP. China is the sole exception, and it is fast emerging into a global superpower that could rival, if not eclipse, the United States. What does China want, does it have a grand strategy to achieve it, and what should the United States do about it? In The Long Game, Rush Doshi draws from a rich base of Chinese primary sources, including decades worth of party documents, leaked materials, memoirs by party leaders, and a careful analysis of China's conduct to provide a history of China's grand strategy since the end of the Cold War. Taking readers behind the Party's closed doors, he uncovers Beijing's long, methodical game to displace America from its hegemonic position in both the East Asia regional and global orders through three sequential strategies of displacement. Beginning in the 1980s, China focused for two decades on hiding capabilities and biding time. After the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, it became more assertive regionally, following a policy of actively accomplishing something. Finally, in the aftermath populist elections of 2016, China shifted to an even more aggressive strategy for undermining US hegemony, adopting the phrase great changes unseen in century. After charting how China's long game has evolved, Doshi offers a comprehensive yet asymmetric plan for an effective US response. Ironically, his proposed approach takes a page from Beijing's own strategic playbook to undermine China's ambitions and strengthen American order without competing dollar-for-dollar, ship-for-ship, or loan-for-loan. |
| graham allison destined for war: Europe Brendan Simms, 2013-04-30 With verve and panache, this magisterial history of Europe since 1453 shows how struggles over the heart of the continent have shaped the world we live in today (The Economist). Whoever controls the core of Europe controls the entire continent, and whoever controls Europe can dominate the world. Over the past five centuries, a rotating cast of kings, conquerors, presidents, and dictators have set their sights on the European heartland, desperate to seize this pivotal area or at least prevent it from falling into the wrong hands. From Charles V and Napoleon to Bismarck and Cromwell, from Hitler and Stalin to Roosevelt and Gorbachev, nearly all the key power players of modern history have staked their titanic visions on this vital swath of land. In Europe, prizewinning historian Brendan Simms presents an authoritative account of the past half-millennium of European history, demonstrating how the battle for mastery of the continent's center has shaped the modern world. A bold and compelling work by a renowned scholar, Europe integrates religion, politics, military strategy, and international relations to show how history -- and Western civilization itself -- was forged in the crucible of Europe. |
| graham allison destined for war: Restless Empire Odd Arne Westad, 2012-08-28 As the twenty-first century dawns, China stands at a crossroads. The largest and most populous country on earth and currently the world's second biggest economy, China has recently reclaimed its historic place at the center of global affairs after decades of internal chaos and disastrous foreign relations. But even as China tentatively reengages with the outside world, the contradictions of its development risks pushing it back into an era of insularity and instability -- a regression that, as China's recent history shows, would have serious implications for all other nations. In Restless Empire, award-winning historian Odd Arne Westad traces China's complex foreign affairs over the past 250 years, identifying the forces that will determine the country's path in the decades to come. Since the height of the Qing Empire in the eighteenth century, China's interactions -- and confrontations -- with foreign powers have caused its worldview to fluctuate wildly between extremes of dominance and subjugation, emulation and defiance. From the invasion of Burma in the 1760s to the Boxer Rebellion in the early 20th century to the 2001 standoff over a downed U.S. spy plane, many of these encounters have left Chinese with a lingering sense of humiliation and resentment, and inflamed their notions of justice, hierarchy, and Chinese centrality in world affairs. Recently, China's rising influence on the world stage has shown what the country stands to gain from international cooperation and openness. But as Westad shows, the nation's success will ultimately hinge on its ability to engage with potential international partners while simultaneously safeguarding its own strength and stability. An in-depth study by one of our most respected authorities on international relations and contemporary East Asian history, Restless Empire is essential reading for anyone wishing to understand the recent past and probable future of this dynamic and complex nation. |
| graham allison destined for war: The Dragons and the Snakes David Kilcullen, 2020-02-04 Just a few years ago, people spoke of the US as a hyperpower-a titan stalking the world stage with more relative power than any empire in history. Yet as early as 1993, newly-appointed CIA director James Woolsey pointed out that although Western powers had slain a large dragon by defeating the Soviet Union in the Cold War, they now faced a bewildering variety of poisonous snakes. In The Dragons and the Snakes, the eminent soldier-scholar David Kilcullen asks how, and what, opponents of the West have learned during the last quarter-century of conflict. Applying a combination of evolutionary theory and detailed field observation, he explains what happened to the snakes-non-state threats including terrorists and guerrillas-and the dragons-state-based competitors such as Russia and China. He explores how enemies learn under conditions of conflict, and examines how Western dominance over a very particular, narrowly-defined form of warfare since the Cold War has created a fitness landscape that forces adversaries to adapt in ways that present serious new challenges to America and its allies. Within the world's contemporary conflict zones, Kilcullen argues, state and non-state threats have increasingly come to resemble each other, with states adopting non-state techniques and non-state actors now able to access levels of precision and lethal weapon systems once only available to governments. A counterintuitive look at this new, vastly more complex environment, The Dragons and the Snakes will not only reshape our understanding of the West's enemies' capabilities, but will also show how we can respond given the increasing limits on US power. |
| graham allison destined for war: Baroness Cox Lela Gilbert, 2007 The inspiring life story of Baroness Caroline Cox, who has used her position in British government to turn the world's attention to humanitarian causes around the globe. With true Christian compassion fused with fierce courage, Lady Cox continues to shun mere observation for frontline participation. --Charles Colson, Wilberforce Award citation, Washington, USA. |
Destined For War Can America And China Escape Thucydidess …
Destined for War, the eminent Harvard scholar Graham Allison explains why Thucydides’s Trap is the best lens for understanding U.S.-China relations in the twenty-first century. Through …
Graham Allison, Destined for War: Can America and China …
Graham Allison’s Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? offers an influential answer by going back to the Ancient Greek history. He draws out a “historical …
Graham Allison on Destined for War: Can America and China …
GRAHAM ALLISON: In the book I look at the last 500 years of history and find 16 cases in which a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power. In 12 of these cases the outcome is war; in …
RESOURCES - Association for Asian Studies
expert Graham Allison. In this book, Allison warns that China’s rapid rise may well lead to war between China and the US. Like his colleagues specializing in international relations (IR) …
Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's …
Sep 28, 2017 · ISBN: 978-0544935273. Reviewed by James R. Cricks. H arvard sage Graham Allison has chosen to focus his considerable foreign policy expertise on the preeminent …
Destined For War Graham Allison - elearning.slu.edu.ng
Destined for War, the eminent Harvard scholar Graham Allison explains why Thucydides’s Trap is the best lens for understanding U.S.-China relations in the twenty-first century. Through …
Destined for War: Can America and China Escape
Graham Allison’s Destined for War asks difficult, important questions about U.S.-China relations and appropriately applies Thucydides’ History to modern geopolitics.
Book Review: Destined for War: Can America and China …
Allison, Graham. Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? New York: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Publishing Company, 2017. vi + 384 pages. Hardcover, …
Graham Allison, Destined for War: Can America and China …
Graham Allison, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap? Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2017. John Pomfret, The Beautiful Country and the Middl
Destined For War Can America And China Escape Thucydidess …
Graham Allison’s Destined for War asks difficult, important questions about U.S.-China relations and appropriately applies Thucydides’ History to modern geopolitics.
GrahamAllison: Destined for War: Can America and China …
Jun 7, 2017 · We are delighted both institutions have come together to co-host this book event today with Graham Allison and Niall Ferguson to discuss Destined for War: Can America and …
Destined For War Graham Allison - internal.unitedsoybean.org
Sep 22, 2020 · In Destined for War, eminent Harvard scholar Graham Allison masterfully blends history and current events to explain the timeless machinery of Thucydides’s Trap—and to …
Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s …
Mar 20, 2018 · In the book, Graham Allison warns that ‘the war between the United States and China in the decades ahead is not just possible, but much more likely than currently …
Essay Thursday, September 24, 2015 The Thucydides Trap
Thursday, September 24, 2015. The Thucydides Trap. Are the U.S. and China Headed for War? by Graham Allison. China could find themselves at war in the next decade. In policy c.
International Journal of Nuclear Security - University of …
In his latest book, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?, Allison addresses a theme that has haunted the psyche of the American government for the past few …
Graham Allison and the Thucydides Trap Myth - Air University
Yet the core theory informing much of US policy toward China today—the idea of a Thucydides Trap popularized in Graham Allison’s Destined for War—sufers from three major flaws: …
Allison, Graham. Destined for War: Can America and China …
Allison, Graham. Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? New York: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Publishing Company, 2017. vi + 384 pages. Hardcover, …
The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters
rofessor Graham Allison gazes into the future of US-China relations in . Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? only to find the best guide to the future is the …
Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s …
Political scientist Graham Allison (Harvard Kennedy School) believes that, if China and the United States continue on their present paths, “war ... in the decades ahead is not just possible, but …
Destined for War? - JSTOR
risk war rather than acquiesce to unaccept-able alternatives. Athens did not want war with Sparta. Kaiser Wilhelm did not seek war with Britain. Mao initially opposed Kim Il-sung’s attack on South Korea in 1950 for fear of …
Destined For War Graham Allison Free Download .pdf
Destined For War Graham Allison Free Download Destined for War: Graham Allison's Masterpiece – Exploring Free Download Options (Legally!) Are you eager to delve into Graham Allison's chillingly prescient …
The Thucydides Trap: Are the U.S. and China Headed for War? - Tri…
Sep 24, 2015 · war in the next decade. In policy circles, this appears as unlikely as it would be unwise. The Thucydides Trap: Are the U.S. and China ... In 12 of 16 past cases in which a rising power has confronted a ruling power, …
Why Are China and the U.S. Not Destined to Fall into the “Thucy…
In his latest book, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’ Trap?, Professor Allison illustrates the relationship between the ... united-states-china-war-thucydides-trap/406756/. 6Graham Allison, …
H-Diplo | ISSF Roundtable XII-2
1958). Early empirical tests of some of the theory’s implications appeared in A.F.K. Organski and Jacek Kugler, The War Ledger (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1980). The fullest statement of Thucydides’s Trap …
Why Are China and the U.S. Not Destined to Fall into the “Thucy…
In his latest book, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’ Trap?, Professor Allison illustrates the relationship between the ... united-states-china-war-thucydides-trap/406756/. 6Graham Allison, …
Destined For War (2024)
Destined For War Destined For War Graham Allison,2017-05-30 NATIONAL BESTSELLER NEW YORK TIMES NOTABLE BOOK OF THE YEAR From an eminent ... still is A trade conflict cyberattack Korean crisis or …
Escaping Thucydides’s Trap - Springer
Graham Allison’s book, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? has done a great service to the world by ... war between China and the US is inevitable. Rather, he wants to point out that historical …
Graham Allison Essence Of Decision [PDF] - archive.ncarb.o…
Destined For War Graham Allison,2017-05-30 NATIONAL BESTSELLER NEW YORK TIMES NOTABLE BOOK OF THE ... cyberattack Korean crisis or accident at sea could easily spark a major war In Destined for War eminent …
ARE INDIA AND CHINA DESTINED FOR WAR? THREE FUTURE SCEN…
Sep 19, 2020 · The Greek historian Thucydides writing on the Peloponnesian War argued that when an established power encounters a rising power, the possibility of conflict between the established and rising power would become …
The Allison Rap on Thucydides’ Trap - Watson Institute for ...
Graham Allison is a friend who was my colleague as assistant secretary of defense. He is a ... In “Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?,” he takes up the question of what happens …
Singapore’s Survival and its China Challenge - JSTOR
fact well-summed up by Harvard academic and doyen, Graham Allison, in his latest book on USChina relations, entitled, Destined for War-. Singapore is also important to China because it is due to be the next chair of …
AN EXPLOITABLE THEORY: THUCYDIDES’ TRAP MODEL PER…
by Professor Graham T. Allison. In his latest book Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’ Trap?, Allison systematically advances the theory and employs historical examples that span …
The End of War Michael Mousseau - sciences.ucf.edu
and changes in relative power result in conºict and war.2 Discussing the rise of China, Graham Allison calls this condition “Thucydides’s Trap,” a refer-ence to the ancient Greek’s claim that Sparta’s fear of …
Thucydides’ Other “Traps” - GovInfo
by Harvard political science professor Graham Allison, as a framework for examining the likeli-hood of a Sino-American war. As Allison summarizes the concept, When a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, alarm …
Destined for War - Asia Society
Destined for War Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap? TUESDAY, APRIL 24, 2018 Asia Society Hong Kong Center, 9 Justice Drive, Admiralty ... Graham Allison is a leading analyst of U.S. national security and …
Destined For War Can America And China Escape Thucydidess …
Destined for War Graham Allison,2017-07-03 China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants. The reason is Thucydides’s Trap, a deadly pattern of structural stress that results when a rising …
Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Master’s Insights on China, the …
Rather, it is the project of Graham Allison, an American academic expert on China and tireless self-promoter, notable most recently for his 2017 book, Destined for War, which analyzed the applicability of the …
Destined For War - archive.southernwv.edu
Destined For War Graham Allison,2017-05-30 NATIONAL BESTSELLER | NEW YORK TIMES NOTABLE BOOK OF THE YEAR. From an eminent international security scholar, an urgent examination of the conditions that …
Destined For War Graham Allison By Graham Allison - mj.unc.edu
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7. The Avoidable War - JSTOR
7. The Avoidable War John F. Kennedy Jr. School Forum Harvard Kennedy School, Institute of Politics Cambridge, Massachusetts December 5, 2019 Interview with Graham T. Allison, Douglas Dillon Professor of …
What do past power transitions reveal about whether the U.S. a…
In “Destined for War” Graham Allison (2017) explains past power transitions using Thucydides’ account of the Peloponnesian War resulting from Athens’ growing power and increased desire to ...
The Strategist ECONOMIC MIGHT, NATIONAL SECURITY, AND THE …
Strategy in the Post-Cold War Era,” in New Directions in Strategic Thinking 2.0: ANU Strategic & Defence Studies Centre’s Golden Anniversary Conference Proceedings, ed. Russell W. Glenn (Acton, AU: Australian …
Never before in history has a rising power ascended so far, s…
Because the publishers insisted on pushing the question mark to the end of the subtitle of Destined for War, the most frequent misinterpretation of the ar gument accuses me of predicting that war with China is …
Karl F. Walling - JSTOR
Now entering the fray comes Graham Allison in his latest book, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?, which is based on an earlier, provocative article in The Atlantic (September 24, 2015) Those …
In the Shadow of the Thucydides Trap: International ... - Springer
In Destined for War, Graham Allison posits twelve factors that have historically reduc ed the likelihood of conflict between a rising power and an established power: powerful third parties that can help resolve the rivalry …
Destined For War Can America And China Escape Thucydidess …
Destined For War Can America And China Escape Thucydidess Trap G Orfield Delve into the emotional tapestry woven by Crafted by in Destined For War Can America And China Escape Thucydidess Trap . This ebook, …
Introduction: Can America and China Escape the Thucydides Tr…
America and China are not destined for war, but destined for an uncertain future. Keywords Sino-U.S.relations.Power.Thucydidestrap .Uncertainty Journal of Chinese Political Science (2019) 24:1–9 ... of Athens and the …
Did Thucydides Believe in Thucydides’ Trap? The History o…
This essay will be organized as a test of Graham Allison’s argument using the case of the Peloponnesian War, followed by an extended discussion of the implications for contemporary U.S.-China relations. First, I …
Destined For War Can America And China Escape Thucydides …
'graham allison destined for war can america and china escape talks at google May 18th, 2020 - graham allison director of harvard kennedy school s belfer center for science and international affairs discusses his latest …
Decoding the Thucydides Trap: A Critical Examination of China's ...
For China's threat, Graham Allison [4] promotes the “Thucydides Trap” to suggest this power transition that an emerging power is likely to challenge the ruling power, potentially leading to war. According to this theory, China's …
Destined For War Graham Allison - elearning.slu.edu.ng
Destined for War Graham Allison,2017-07-03 China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants. The reason is Thucydides’s Trap, a deadly pattern of structural stress that results when a rising …
Destined For War Can America And China Escape Thucydidess …
Graham Allison on Destined for War: Can America and … So, Thucydides's Trap is the dangerous dynamic that occurs when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power. That is actually, I think, the best lens for …
Destined For War Graham Allison (PDF) - w17.keyhole.co
Destined for War Graham Allison,2017-07-03 China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants. The reason is Thucydides’s Trap, a deadly pattern of structural stress that results when a rising …
Graham Allison Destined For War (Download Only)
wide ranging erudite case studies that span human history A fine book New York Times Book Review Destined for War Graham Allison,2017-07-03 China and the United States are heading toward a war neither …
Destined for War: Can Amerıca and China Escape Thucydides’ T
Graham Allison, New York: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Publishing Company, 2017, 384 pages, ISBN: 978-0-544-93527-2 Orhan Çifçi* In his outstanding book, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucy-dides’ …
Graham Allison Destined For War - 45.79.9.118
Destined for War Graham Allison,2017-07-03 China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants. The reason is Thucydides’s Trap, a deadly pattern of structural stress that results when a rising …
GRAHAM ALLISON AND THE ‘THUCYDIDES TRAP’: A CASE
Graham Allison is an American political scientist and professor at the Harvard University. He has been an analyst in the U.S National Security too. In the book Destined for War, Allison uses the term Thucydides Trap …
Graham Allison Destined For War (book) - offsite.creighton.edu
United States and China must take to avoid disaster today Destined for War Graham Allison,2018 A NEW YORK TIMES NOTABLE BOOK OF THE YEAR SHORT LISTED FOR THE 2018 LIONEL GELBER PRIZE NAMED A BEST …
Real Trap of China–U.S. Relations - Springer
war was inevitable because Sparta feared the growing power and influ-ence of Athenian empire. Two thousand years later, Harvard political scientist Graham Allison published a book in 2017, Destined for War: Can America …
American sphere. Spheres of influence The New Spheres - JS…
War U.S. secretaries of state should have looked back to the final months of World War II, when U.S. policymakers were similarly resistant to accepting a world in which spheres of influence The New Spheres of …
Graham Allison and the Thucydides Trap Myth - JSTOR
Graham Allison s Destined for War su ers from three major aws: unclear de nitions, omitted variable bias, and selection bias. Because any one of these problems is fatal to an attempt to use data in order to make predic - tions or …
Destined For War Can America And China Escape Thucydidess …
Destined for War Graham Allison,2017-07-03 China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants. The reason is Thucydides’s Trap, a deadly pattern of structural stress that results when a rising …
Libros Destined - JSTOR
Destined for War Can America and China escape Thucydides’s Trap? GRAHAM ALLISON Scribe Publications, United Kingdom, 2018. Graham Allison, en su libro ... Graham Allison recomienda a los futuros gobernantes …
Graham Allison Destined For War Pdf (Download Only)
Graham Allison Destined For War Pdf Destined For War Graham Allison,2017-05-30 NATIONAL BESTSELLER NEW YORK TIMES NOTABLE BOOK OF THE YEAR From an eminent international security scholar an urgent …
Thucydides Lives in Asia Power Transition Traps Are Real - HCSS
Review, Graham Allison, Destined for War, in Prism 7:1 (2017), pp.175-178; D.A. Welch, “Why International Relations Theorists Should Stop Reading Thucydides”, Review of International Studies 29 (2003), pp.301-319; …
Reseña de libro Allison, G. (2017). Destined for War: Can ... - Dialnet
Graham Allison, exdirector del Centro Belfer sobre ciencias y asuntos internacionales en la Universidad de Harvard y exsecretario adjunto de Defensa de Estados Unidos para políticas y planificación, es el autor de Destined for …
Graham Allison Destined For War (2024) - offsite.creighton.edu
wide ranging erudite case studies that span human history A fine book New York Times Book Review Destined for War Graham Allison,2017-07-03 China and the United States are heading toward a war neither …
Destined for War: Can Amerıca and China Escape Thucydides’ T
Graham Allison, New York: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Publishing Company, 2017, 384 pages, ISBN: 978-0-544-93527-2 Orhan Çifçi* In his outstanding book, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucy-dides’ …
Graham Allison, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape ...
1 Chodzi o 80-stronicową pozycję Summary of Destined for War. Conversation Starters, Paul Mani, London Sky Press, 2019. POLEMIKI I RECENZJE, Przegląd Geopolityczny, 29, 2019, s. 162-165. ... Graham Allison daje jednak …
